Rubber Market Sees Brief Rebound

Helixtap Daily Physical Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed STR20 US$2095/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, up US$15
• Helixtap assessed SIR20 US$1970/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya, up US$10
• Helixtap assessed AFR10 US$2000/mt CFR Hamburg Rotterdam, up US$15
• Helixtap implied AFR10 US$1970/mt FOB Abidjan, down US$15

Helixtap weekly Raw Material Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed Indonesian raw material IDR 29,000/kg ex-works, down IDR 1000
• Helixtap assessed Thai raw material THB 60/kg ex-works, down THB 3
• Helixtap assessed Bulk latex US$1530/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, down US$140

Helixtap weekly Physical Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed SVR10 US$2040/mt FOB Ho chi minh, steady
• Helixtap assessed SMR20 US$2060/mt FOB Klang Penang, down US$60
• Helixtap assessed TSR 20 US$2030/mt CIF China, down US$50

Helixtap ESG Prices guide (Based on Helixtap assessment and fixed premium basis)

• Helixtap ESG price guide AFR10 is US$2040/mt FOB Abidjan
• Helixtap ESG price guide for SIR20 is US$2050/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya

Market sentiment was “Slightly bullish” - Helixtap sentiment tracker

The physical rubber market experienced a brief reprieve during the Asian trade day following a week of significant declines. The support largely comes from the upward momentum in rubber markets with some technical support and stable crude oil prices alongside a stronger US dollar.

In addition, the supply is tight due to the seasonal tightening of raw materials in key producing countries, like Thailand, Vietnam, and Africa. Furthermore, the prevailing optimism regarding additional stimulus measures from China kept the market slightly positive.

There was a slight uptick in the offers level with SIR offered in the range of US$1970-US$1985/mt on an FOB basis, even though it was considered as higher offers given the buying interest was around US$1950/mt on an FOB basis.

There was some support for prime STR 20 offers as well, which ranged between US$2100 and US$2110/mt on an FOB basis. The buyers were, however, largely cautious during the day, awaiting some stability in the market. There is some optimism among the market participants that the correction in the price can bring some buyers back.

The raw material situation 

There was some correction in the raw material prices this week owing to bearish demand cues despite wintering. According to Helixtap market intelligence, Thailand's production levels have decreased by approximately 50%. The decline in demand is exerting downward pressure on prices.

A Thailand-based producer source noted that there is a wide range of offers hovering between US$1490/mt and US$1600/mt depending on the positions they have. The supply in these regions remains constrained; however, restocking is typically minimal during or in anticipation of the winter season. This suggests a concern regarding the future demand trajectory.

Despite this week's correction, raw material prices in Indonesia continued to rise. The producers noted that raw material prices have to see more corrections to enable them to offer their cargoes at competitive rates with positive margins.

Eyes on China 

The physical rubber market has shown a persistent decline, mirroring the downturn seen in rubber futures markets, which can be linked to the underwhelming performance of the Chinese economy.

China, in contrast, maintained its activity in response to the price corrections. Certain sources indicated that inquiries had been made by Chinese tire manufacturers as well.

The market has not yet observed any significant stimulus announcement following the conclusion of the “Two Sessions” meeting in China.

Currently, it seems that the anticipations regarding stimulus commitments were excessively hopeful. The market participants are anticipating China to discuss further measures aimed at boosting domestic consumption. The deflationary pressures in China have intensified worries about economic growth, and the steep correction this week seemed to be somewhat of an impulsive reaction.

Meanwhile, recently, there has been a notable rise in the volume flow of rubber into INE. This has resulted in a careful outlook within the market concerning the possibility of additional corrections.

However, some market sources noted that this is not out of ordinary as once the sales were completed, the markets would have already acknowledged that fact which should not impact the pricing sentiment a lot.

US dilemma

Increasing global trade tensions, however, capped a stronger recovery. A possible government shutdown in the US temporarily alleviated concerns over trade wars. The market's sensitivity to news was minimal, indicating a significant increase in anxiety.

Bearish sentiment weighs as wintering cheer fades 

Helixtap Daily Physical Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed STR20 US$2080/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, down US$20
• Helixtap assessed SIR20 US$1960/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya, down US$15
• Helixtap assessed AFR10 US$1985/mt CFR Hamburg Rotterdam, down US$15
• Helixtap implied AFR10 US$1935/mt FOB Abidjan, down US$15

Helixtap ESG Prices guide (Based on Helixtap assessment and fixed premium basis)

• Helixtap ESG price guide AFR10 is US$2025/mt FOB Abidjan
• Helixtap ESG price guide for SIR20 is US$2040 /mt FOB Belawan Surabaya

Market sentiment was “Bearish” - Helixtap sentiment tracker 

The physical rubber prices plunged during the Asian trade day amid weak international buying and a spike in the volume flow into the Chinese exchange. This resulted in muted market activities as some buyers and sellers opted to stay at the sidelines. 

Producers are unwilling to match the market expectation 

With the prices remaining bound south, there was a widespread apprehension amid the producers/processors to lower their prices. A trader source noted that the sellers are unwilling to sell at a discount.

The weakness in the US dollar weighs upon the producer margins owing to the diminishing buffer provided by the currency difference. There were some offers for SIR 20 around US$1975-US$1960/mt on an FOB basis, while the buying interest was around US$10 lower.

The stance to hold was more predominant among some of the Indonesian producers, as they are either at cost or below cost.

On the other hand, there were some corrections in Thai and Vietnam prices. A Thailand-based source noted that the prices are seeing some significant correction this week. The offers for STR 20 prime were in the range of US$2080-US$2090/mt on an FOB basis, close to 3% lower than last week. Given the wide spread between Indonesian and other sources, there is a better scope for price correction for TSR from other sources.

Some believe the prices have the possibility to move as low as the mid-US$1800/mt level, given the ongoing bearishness and lack of demand.

Volume flow into Chinese exchange denting the market sentiment 

Meanwhile, Chinese arbitrage buying continued with some support from Chinese tiremakers buying interests. However, given that the buying was largely skewed towards the arbitrage buying, it failed to support the market.

Lately there has been an increase in the volume flow of rubber into. This has led to a cautious sentiment in the market regarding potential further corrections. Market sources say arbitrage buyers account for most market volume because spreads have not widened enough to close their spreads. This is going to result in an uptick in inventory levels and thus impact overall pricing sentiment.

Meanwhile, some trades for the STR 20 mixture were reported in the range of US$2020-US$2030/mt on a CIF basis.

Macro factors and tariff battles 

The subdued US CPI reading failed to generate significant momentum in the markets, resulting in a lack of optimism among buyers. Another point of consideration is that February's data does not comprehensively reflect the effects of a series of tariffs. Ultimately, the main concern for markets is not inflation but rather growth.

The inflation report presents favorable data; however, it is inherently retrospective and fails to provide insights into future trends or the potential inflationary effects of the current tariffs. The challenging aspect lies in the unpredictability associated with tariffs. On Wednesday, Trump indicated a potential escalation of the global trade conflict by proposing additional tariffs on goods from the European Union.

Spot market exhibits mixed trends despite weak fundamentals

Helixtap Daily Physical Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed STR20 US$2110/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, down US$30
• Helixtap assessed SIR20 US$1975/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya, down US$5
• Helixtap assessed AFR10 US$2000/mt CFR Hamburg Rotterdam, down US$10
• Helixtap implied AFR10 US$1970/mt FOB Abidjan, down US$10

Helixtap ESG Prices guide (Based on Helixtap assessment and fixed premium basis)

• Helixtap ESG price guide AFR10 is US$2040/mt FOB Abidjan
• Helixtap ESG price guide for SIR20 is US$2055/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya

Market sentiment was “Slightly Bearish” - Helixtap sentiment tracker 

The spot rubber market during the Asian trade day saw volatility persist, with overall slight positive demand signs while the trend remained mixed. However, as the day drew to a close, sentiment ultimately yielded to the dominant bearish market forces.

Thai and Vietnam prices are under pressure 

While the wintering has already started in parts of Thailand and the majority of Vietnam, the TSR prices from the regions saw some downward pressure. A Thai-based source noted that production from Thailand is down by around 50%-60%, but weakness in demand is weighing on the prices.

On an FOB basis, there was some correction in the STR 20 prices, with offers ranging from US$2070 to US$2110/mt. According to Helixtap market intelligence, there is some pressure on the producers/processors to liquidate as raw material prices have eased a bit due to poor demand.

The supply in these regions is still tight, but there is limited restocking usually seen during or ahead of wintering. This indicates the apprehension around the demand outlook. With the projections of heavy rains in April from the Thai Meteorological Department, production might witness more disruption. It might cap a steep correction, but weakness in demand and ongoing macroeconomic conditions are weighing more heavily on sentiments.

SIR prices are seeing some support 

Meanwhile, SIR-20 prices managed to stay range-bound during the day. This was triggered by the wide spread between SIR 20 and TSR from other regions. There has been some revival in demand owing to the correction in the prices.

According to Indonesian producer sources, there is ample supply in the market, which should keep some downward pressure on it. However, SIR 20 being the most economical option in the market lends some leverage to narrow the spread with TSR from other regions.

During the day, offers for SIR 20 ranged between US$1970 and US$2000/mt on an FOB basis, while the buying interest was around US$1940 and US$1950/mt on an FOB basis. However, the FOB basis reported trades in the range of US$1970-US$1980/mt..

A trader source noted that in the case of offers directly from the producers, they were on the higher end because they wanted to hold on. However, ahead of the Eid al-Fitr holidays, some sellers might want to liquidate the nearby cargoes to maintain the cash flow. This could weigh on the pricing sentiment.

Chinese buying is active

China on the other hand continued to remain active given the correction in the prices. Some sources noted that there were some inquiries from the Chinese tire makers as well. The On a CIF basis, traders reportedly traded the STR 20 mixture in the range of US$2040-US$2045/mt. Another trader source added that the presence of the Chinese tiremakers is stalled a steep crash even though the sentiment is bearish.

Meanwhile, the movement of Indonesian rubber continued in the INE, and according to Helixtap market intelligence, it is around 60,000 mt. This, however, has made the market apprehensive about further corrections.

Chinese stimulus expectation 

The market is yet to see any strong stimulus announcement after the end of the “Two Sessions” meeting in China. As of now, it appears that the expectations surrounding the promises of stimulus were overly optimistic. The current stimulus measures and bond issuances are unlikely to result in a strong growth rate, given China’s dependence on exports and the looming trade war. China has committed to only limited measures aimed at enhancing consumption and addressing overcapacity issues. The policies indicate that the establishment of a consumer-driven economy is a prolonged and gradual endeavor.

Chinese rubber market active, rest mostly in wait and watch mode 

Helixtap Daily Physical Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed STR20 US$2130/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, up US$15
• Helixtap assessed SIR20 US$1975/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya, up US$15
• Helixtap assessed AFR10 US$2010/mt CFR Hamburg Rotterdam, up US$15
• Helixtap implied AFR10 US$180/mt FOB Abidjan, up US$15

Helixtap ESG Prices guide (Based on Helixtap assessment and fixed premium basis)

• Helixtap ESG price guide AFR10 is US$2050/mt FOB Abidjan
• Helixtap ESG price guide for SIR20 is US$2055/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya

Market sentiment was “Bearish” - Helixtap sentiment tracker 

The physical market witnessed weak demand for spot cargoes with limited trades done while prices saw a marginal improvement even as sellers remained half-hearted. The Chinese market, however, was reported to be active. The producers looked for some support all around the markets since they felt the fall on Monday was severe.

Producers wait to mitigate raw material costs

The Chinese market witnessed trades, especially in STR mixtures, in a market where buying enquiries outnumbered willing suppliers. STR20 Mixture was traded RMB 16400-RMB16700 (US$2260-US$2300/mt).

Raw material prices were high. Indonesian cup lump prices were just below IDR29,500/kg. The producers waited for raw material prices to undergo correction so that they can offer their cargoes competitively. But tight supply due to wintering cast a shadow over their plans. SIR was heard traded at US$1980-1990/mt. African offers were quiet due to wintering in major producer Ivory Coast.

Producers expected some support to prices due to wintering in many producing countries in Southeast Asia and India which continued to stifle supply.

SICOM June contracts, which started the day in the negative territory, moved to the positive terrain, making marginal gains by the end of Tuesday (.31% from yesterday’s close). The May rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) lost .26%, to finish at US$2,366/mt.

The Japanese rubber futures hit a seven-month low on Tuesday, impacted by a stronger yen, even as deflationary pressures make the recovery of China uncertain. However, it also made good recovery by the close of the day. The weak Chinese data weighed on the sentiments of both futures and spot markets while players assessed the impact of various tariffs and the trade wars.

The silver lining on the scene was reports from Indonesia of the country’s EV sector pulling off a growth picture for its car sales in February 2025, the first time since June 2023. Chinese brands are the major players on the scene in Indonesia, which augurs well for the domestic rubber-based industry churning out tires for the automakers.

Macro, geo-political sentiments weigh

US stocks tumbled on Monday over ongoing tariff tiffs and concerns regarding potential federal government shutdown that cast fears of a looming recession amid Trump hinting of a bumpy ride ahead. Disappointing corporate earnings and high stock valuation compared to historical averages are contributory to the crash. Investors and market players remained on the edge watching upcoming inflation reports and interest rate policies as well as possible government action to stabilize the economy.

Chinese reciprocal tariffs on the US started getting implemented from Monday, and analysts say the tanking of the US stock market was partly due to this. The commodity market in Asia took cue from this on Tuesday morning, shedding points. “Generally, the market does not like uncertainty but payers are unsure in which way the markets are going to pan out,” said a trader source in Mumbai. The current happenings and corrections are more sentiment-driven and influenced by geo-political hiccups than fundamentals.

China’s bond yields jumped to a three-month high, aligning with shifting rate cut expectations of investors. Investors trimmed bond holdings on bets that additional fiscal spending will boost growth and reverse interest rate cuts. It showed the global markets remained sensitive to Chinese Central Bank policies. The selloff in bonds followed a rally in the Chinese offshore stock market, signaling a shift of liquidity toward riskier assets.

Jitters around Chinese economic cues hits rubber spot prices 

Helixtap Daily Physical Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed STR20 US$2115/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, down US$25
• Helixtap assessed SIR20 US$1960/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya, down US$30
• Helixtap assessed AFR10 US$1995/mt CFR Hamburg Rotterdam, down US$25
• Helixtap implied AFR10 US$1965/mt FOB Abidjan, down US$25

Helixtap ESG Prices guide (Based on Helixtap assessment and fixed premium basis)

• Helixtap ESG price guide AFR10 is US$2035/mt FOB Abidjan
• Helixtap ESG price guide for SIR20 is US$2040/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya

Market sentiment was “Bearish” - Helixtap sentiment tracker 

The physical rubber markets had a nervous start to the week, with an unusually sharp drop amid weakness in the Chinese market data. There was apprehension among the producers and processors about actively offering in the market given the ongoing wintering. However, lack of demand and bearish sentiment had a stronger impact on the prices.

Muted market activities despite an uptick in inquiries 

There was some uptick in buying interest with the correction in the prices. However, the producers remained hesitant to make any offers. A trader source noted that they did receive inquiries, but there were hardly any offers in the market.

The physical rubber market experienced a continued decline, in alignment with the downturn observed in rubber futures markets, which is attributed to the sluggish performance of the Chinese economy.

The deflationary pressures in China—the key rubber consumer—heightened concerns regarding economic growth. “The market is weak on more poor Chinese data. So, I think it could be a bit knee-jerk today,” added a producer source.

With the prices under the US$2000/mt mark, it might ease the mind block amid the buyers and result in improved buying. As a result, some market participants were optimistic that some revival in buying could potentially cap a steep correction in the physical prices.

While the offers in the market were limited, there were some offers for SIR 20 in the range of US$1960-US$1970/mt on an FOB basis. The Indonesian producers are keen to liquidate prompt cargoes ahead of Eid ul Fitr holidays.

Furthermore, the drop in crude oil prices and the depreciation of the US dollar contributed to the decline in market sentiment. This was primarily due to apprehensions regarding the effects of US import tariffs on global economic growth and demand. “The bear market is not only in rubber, but across equities and others too,” added another producer source..

However, any further correction during the Asian trade day was capped by ongoing worries regarding the natural rubber supply shortage and increasing optimism surrounding Chinese stimulus measures. Chinese policymakers are currently evaluating strategies aimed at enhancing economic growth during the National People’s Congress.

Macro indicators weigh on sentiment 

According to National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data, the consumer price index (CPI) declined 0.7% in February compared to a year earlier, which is the first decline since January 2024.

The seasonal demand has waned, and domestic demand remained frugal, while producer price deflation continued. Although boosts in the technological sector have boosted sentiment, domestic demand is still low. In addition, the trade war poses threats to exports, so the market participants are expecting a more aggressive fiscal policy. This could extend the duration of the deflationary pressures in China.

The summary from our predictive forecasting this week:

To see more and compare the physical and futures spread, click here. Email any of our team members to understand our forecasting solution.

Spot rubber prices witness lows as market tackles downturn

Helixtap Daily Physical Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed STR20 US$2140/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, down US$20
• Helixtap assessed SIR20 US$1990/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya, down US$30
• Helixtap assessed AFR10 US$2020/mt CFR Hamburg Rotterdam, down US$20
• Helixtap implied AFR10 US$1990/mt FOB Abidjan, down US$20

Helixtap weekly Raw Material Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed Indonesian raw material IDR 30,000/kg ex-works, steady
• Helixtap assessed Thai raw material THB 63/kg ex-works, up THB 1
• Helixtap assessed Bulk latex US$1670/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, up US$60

Helixtap weekly Physical Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed SVR10 US$2040/mt FOB Ho chi minh, up US$5
• Helixtap assessed SMR20 US$21200/mt FOB Klang Penang, up US$10
• Helixtap assessed TSR 20 US$2080/mt CIF China, down US$20

Helixtap ESG Prices guide (Based on Helixtap assessment and fixed premium basis)

• Helixtap ESG price guide AFR10 is US$2060/mt FOB Abidjan
• Helixtap ESG price guide for SIR20 is US$2070/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya

Market sentiment was “Bearish” - Helixtap sentiment tracker 

The spot rubber prices stumbled during the Asian trade, continuing with the volatile trend seen over the week despite limited availability of cargoes. In the week ended on March 07, physical prices have fallen much faster, as market participants noted that there is limited reason for the buyers to book volumes amid the uncertainty.

Rubber prices have seen increased volatility in the past few weeks due to the uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade war, coupled with the winter and supply shortages. The bid and offer gap was seen widening, indicating lower buyers’ confidence. There was a slowdown in the Chinese market amid widespread bearishness.

A producer source noted that the market is in a strange state; on one hand, the production is limited due to wintering. On the other hand, the buying is also muted. There were some trades reported for SIR 20 around US$1980-US$1990/mt on an FOB basis, but largely by the regular buyers. The offer level was, however, around US$2010-US$2020/mt on an FOB basis.

While the market activities remained muted, STR 20 prices saw relatively conservative correction. A Thailand-based source added, STR 20 prices are slightly lower in THB terms, but a weaker USD has kept the prices around the same level.. 

Market short on supply 

Meanwhile, the supply situation continued to tighten. According to Helixtap market intelligence, Vietnam has ceased tapping; so have approximately 50–60% of the northeastern and southern regions of Thailand. Consequently, this is leading to inadequate inventory levels of natural rubber, driving the raw material prices higher.

However, there were reports of some low-cost Thai field latex in the market despite the wintering.

Certain traders who acquired volume at lower price points are currently attempting to liquidate their holdings at reduced prices, influenced by pressure from sellers to fulfill delivery obligations.

Concurrently, the market is observing a decline in supply attributed to seasonal factors. The current demand landscape is subdued, primarily due to concerns among latex buyers regarding potential tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. “Looks like we are at a crossroad now,” said a Thailand-based producer source.

The Thai Meteorological Department has released a severe weather advisory, predicting storms in the northern regions of the country until March 8. Farmers have been alerted to take necessary precautions in anticipation of potential crop damage resulting from the expected thunderstorms.

Consequently, in light of these weather-related concerns,, the supply is likely to tighten further.

Bearish cues from China 

Amid lack of demand, the weakness in Chinese market sentiment is adding more pressure on the prices, nullifying the impact of the supply shortage. There was some contraction in Chinese imports during January and February, while exports showed signs of diminishing momentum, attributed to increasing tariff pressures from the United States.

Market observers indicate that the decline in imports suggests a slowdown in Chinese buying in anticipation of continued trade challenges. In addition, the recent Parliament meeting did not meet market expectations regarding stimulus announcements, which further dented confidence.

Active Chinese buying & delay in US auto tariff kept spot market buoyant

Helixtap Daily Physical Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed STR20 US$2160/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, up US$30
• Helixtap assessed SIR20 US$2020/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya, up US$30
• Helixtap assessed AFR10 US$2040/mt CFR Hamburg Rotterdam, up US$25
• Helixtap implied AFR10 US$2010/mt FOB Abidjan, up US$25

Helixtap ESG Prices guide (Based on Helixtap assessment and fixed premium basis)

• Helixtap ESG price guide AFR10 is US$2080/mt FOB Abidjan
• Helixtap ESG price guide for SIR20 is US$2100/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya

Market sentiment was “Bullish” - Helixtap sentiment tracker 

The buoyancy in the physical rubber market sentiment nudged the prices upward, triggered by the delay in the implementation of the new blanket tariff announced by the US on Mexican and Canadian automakers. In addition, the supply shortage and the uptick in Chinese buying also supported the prices.

Slight uptick in buying sentiment 

Despite the prices being northbound, there was a slight improvement in the buying sentiment. While the buying trend was slightly mixed in the international market, the Chinese market remained active.

According to Helixtap market sources, some of the regular buyers opted to stay at the sidelines, but still some end users were seeing booking volumes.

There were some trades reported for SIR 20 at an elevated level compared to the previous day. SIR 20 traded in the range of US$2015–US$2020/mt on an FOB basis during the day. Meanwhile, STR 20 also reportedly traded in the range of US$2015-US$2016/mt on a FOB basis, with smaller volumes. The 

“The market is up due to Trump delaying the automobile tariffs from Canada and Mexico. US stock markets were up last night. China’s stock market is up today,” a Singapore-based source added.

Additionally, the supply continues to remain tight amid wintering in Thailand, Vietnam, and Africa.

Arbitrage buying in China continued

The Chinese market was strong during the day. The strength exhibited by the Chinese stock market also permeated the Chinese rubber market. However, the buying was largely skewed towards arbitrage buying rather than booking by the end users.

A trader source noted that it was largely arbitrage buyers changing goods, with the traded level for STR 20 mixture in the range of US$2100-US$2015/mt on a CIF basis. While the backwardation continued in the Chinese market, the return of some Chinese tiremakers has lent some optimism to the market.

According to a producer source, some tiremakers were active in the market, as expected given their need to restock. Meanwhile, China is awaiting the policy decisions in the annual meeting. China is expected to implement additional fiscal stimulus measures. The Chinese market is facing increasing pressure to implement consumer-focused stimulus measures aimed at combating deflationary trends and decreasing dependence on exports.

Optimism around tariff news trickles into spot price

The physical rubber prices and futures edged up during the Asian Day, driven by the uptick in market confidence as the US delayed the implementation of the 25% blanket tariff on Mexican and Canadian automakers by a month.

A one-month exemption for vehicles that adhere to the intricate content regulations of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement would present a significant advantage. The exemption would also provide advantages to certain foreign brand automakers that have significant production operations in the U.S., such as Honda and Toyota.

There were serious concerns around the impact on rubber demand owing to the tariff battle. Industry reports indicate that the US market intends to purchase around 70% of the 5.3 million light vehicles manufactured in Canada and Mexico. Additionally, numerous vehicles manufactured in the US incorporate propulsion systems and component sets sourced from Canada or Mexico; these components would also be subject to tariffs, thereby raising the costs of vehicles produced domestically.

Increased enquiries on weaker rubber spot prices 

Helixtap Daily Physical Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed STR20 US$2130/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, up US$15
• Helixtap assessed SIR20 US$2000/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya, down US$15
• Helixtap assessed AFR10 US$2015/mt CFR Hamburg Rotterdam, steady
• Helixtap implied AFR10 US$1985/mt FOB Abidjan, steady

Helixtap ESG Prices guide (Based on Helixtap assessment and fixed premium basis)

• Helixtap ESG price guide AFR10 is US$2055/mt FOB Abidjan
• Helixtap ESG price guide for SIR20 is US$2080/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya

Market sentiment was “Bearish” - Helixtap sentiment tracker 

The stress of the intensifying trade war was evident in the physical rubber prices during the Asian Trade Day. While the market sentiment took a hit, there was a slight uptick in the buying interest owing to the correction in the prices. Meanwhile, producers faced challenges due to high-cost raw materials and lower market prices..

Correction in prices as per market expectations 

The market was expecting to see some correction in prices post-implementation of US tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico. There was a significant dip in the traded level TSR from Indonesia. However, amid winter, which led to some shortages, Thai and Vietnamese producers held on to their offers..

There were some trades reported for SIR 20, but the traded level saw some correction compared to the previous day. SIR 20 traded in the range of US$1990–US$2000/mt on an FOB basis during the day. “Sentiments overall are on the the bearish side due to the trade war,” said a producer source.

While the supply for Indonesian raw materials has improved, some of the producers are still struggling with higher raw material costs, denting into the margins. There was some rush amid the Indonesian producers to liquidate the nearby cargoes to maintain their cash flow ahead of the Eid al-Fitr holidays at the end of the month.

On the other hand, Thai and Vietnamese TSR offers remained strong amid wintering. A Thailand-based source noted that the prices have been very volatile lately, which is making it difficult for the buyers.

Given the overall bearishness in the market, there was a slight uptick in the inquiries. However, the active buying came largely from regular buyers. There was some interest for STR 20 as well, with trades for smaller volumes concluded in the range of US$2150-US$2160/mt on FOB, which was deemed by some market sources as “too high.”

Inquiries from Chinese tiremakers 

The correction brought some buying interest from the Chinese tiremakers back in the market. A trader source noted that there were trades for the STR 20 mixture reported in the range of US$2075-US$2085/mt on a CIF basis.

As the production starts picking up post-holiday, the Chinese tiremakers were expected to return to the market. However, the market has yet to see a complete recovery as they await any stimulus decisions post the annual China meeting, which started today.

The nation's legislative body has committed to an action plan aimed at enhancing consumption and stimulating domestic demand as part of its major objectives for 2025. Chinese officials have thus far been reluctant to implement policies aimed at increasing disposable income for consumers. However, these measures are becoming increasingly crucial amid the ongoing trade war with the US. There is a pressing need for Chinese consumers to enhance their purchasing activity, particularly for products that may see reduced demand in other markets due to rising tariffs.

The outlined measures aimed at enhancing consumption this year feature a notable expansion of China's trade-in program initiated last year, which has primarily concentrated on electric vehicles, consumer electronics, and household appliances.

Likelihood of a full-blown trade war weighs on rubber spot market 

Helixtap Daily Physical Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed STR20 US$2115/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, down US$15
• Helixtap assessed SIR20 US$2012.5/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya, down US$15
• Helixtap assessed AFR10 US$2015/mt CFR Hamburg Rotterdam, down US$15
• Helixtap implied AFR10 US$1985/mt FOB Abidjan, down US$15

Helixtap ESG Prices guide (Based on Helixtap assessment and fixed premium basis)

• Helixtap ESG price guide AFR10 is US$2055/mt FOB Abidjan
• Helixtap ESG price guide for SIR20 is US$2092.5/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya

Market sentiment was “Bearish” - Helixtap sentiment tracker 

The spot rubber market took a hit as the US implemented steep tariffs against China, Canada, and Mexico, launching a new trade war. There was widespread skepticism amid the market participants moving their attention to China’s annual meeting scheduled to start on March 5.

Market pauses, sentiments weak 

The news negatively impacted the sentiment of both the physical and futures markets, leading to reduced market activity and a price correction. The impact of this is particularly strong on producers due to the rising prices of raw materials.

While the physical prices are still on the higher end, they are expected to see some corrections during the week. A producer source added that the current physical market prices look “ok.” “Maybe the turning point is here, but it’s hard to discern,” he said, adding that different markets are showing disparate signs.

Meanwhile, the market activities were largely muted with most of the buyers sidelined. Even in the Chinese market, the buying slowed down significantly. The physical market was quite weak today with several sellers but no buyers. There were some trades for warehouse cargoes ranging around US$2110-US$2115/mt, but the volumes were limited. The market is hoping China will release some big stimulus, said a Singapore-based source.

The impact of the tariff on rubber demand 

Mexico and Canada are likely to experience the immediate impact. Market participants believe it might impact vehicle production in the region, which moved to the US. This is trickling into the rubber market. While it does provide a scope for carmakers to move to other regions, that would take time. Thus, a straight impact on the midterm demand.

There were some trades reported for SIR 20, but the traded level saw some correction compared to the previous day. SIR 20 traded in the range of US$2010–US$2015/mt on an FOB basis during the day.

An Indonesian producer source noted that the Indonesian cup lump price has crossed IDR 30,000 while the physical demand and prices remained bearish. Even Thai cup lump prices continued to inch up, with trades for Thai cup lump during the day reported in the range of THB 64-THB 65/kg. Even though a stronger dollar does buffer the impact on the margins, the onset of a trade war would impact the buying sentiment, especially at the end-user end.

Tariff battle intensifies 

The US implemented 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, along with a doubling of duties on Chinese goods to 20%. Some of these products saw US tariffs increase sharply under the former president last year, including a doubling of duties on Chinese semiconductors to 50% and a quadrupling of tariffs on Chinese EVs to more than 100%.

China responded immediately after the deadline, announcing additional tariffs of 10–15% on certain US imports starting March 10 and a series of new export restrictions for designated US entities. Canada had already signaled that the first tranche of tariffs would come in shortly after US levies, targeting about $20 billion in US goods.

Market participants were concerned about the fallout for the U.S. economy, especially given the soft cues from the macro data in recent weeks. Additionally, US factory gate prices jumped, and materials deliveries were taking longer, suggesting that tariffs on imports could soon hamper production.

Spot strong on tight supply; anticipation prevailed over Chinese annual meeting

Helixtap Daily Physical Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed STR20 US$2130/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, up US$10
• Helixtap assessed SIR20 US$2027.5/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya, up US$10
• Helixtap assessed AFR10 US$2030/mt CFR Hamburg Rotterdam, up US$10
• Helixtap implied AFR10 US$2000/mt FOB Abidjan, up US$10

Helixtap ESG Prices guide (Based on Helixtap assessment and fixed premium basis)

• Helixtap ESG price guide AFR10 is US$2070/mt FOB Abidjan
• Helixtap ESG price guide for SIR20 is US$2107.5/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya

Market sentiment was “Slightly bullish” - Helixtap sentiment tracker 

Physical rubber prices have firmed up, distancing themselves from the futures market amid mounting uncertainties over immediate supply. While the Chinese buying continued, the market awaited the outcome of China’s annual meeting scheduled to start this week.

Chinese buying is still strong for prompt cargoes

The increase in the amount of purchasing activity, notably for prompt cargoes, continued during the Asian trade day, which is the primary cause of the increase in prices. The majority of this can be attributed to a lack of liquidity as well as volatility that is higher than typical.

On a CIF basis, the STR 20 mixture trades at prices ranging from US$2110 to US$2120/mt. Nevertheless, prices are unable to move beyond a specific range owing to the overall bearish cues in anticipation of the upcoming Chinese annual meeting. When it came to the availability of raw materials, the markets continued to be competitive.

Apprehension around the Chinese meeting and possible stimulus

Ministry chiefs and provincial leaders will convene the parliamentary conclave on March 5, with the expectation that officials will establish a growth target. The market participants anticipate China’s official budget deficit target to hit its highest level with some stimulus support as China grapples with deflation, a property market downturn, and an ongoing trade conflict with the US.

China is expected to significantly alter its policy this year; however, the proposed measures may not be adequately aggressive. “They are likely to come out with announcements on stimulus. However, we will still need to see how the market interprets and reacts to it,” said a Singapore-based source.

The contribution of consumption to GDP growth declined, marking the lowest level since 2006, excluding the pandemic year of 2020. The recent tariff imposition by Trump has elevated the immediate risks.

Only Japanese buyers active in the international market

Meanwhile, the buying activities remained sluggish in the international market. Amid wintering, which is driving the prices up, the prices across the board are holding strong. However, lack of buying has capped any significant surge in the prices.

The Japanese buyers, however, continued to remain active. According to Helixtap market intelligence, some Japanese buyers were booking AFR cargoes as well. Amid the early wintering, the AFR 10 prices have moved up significantly. According to a producer source, the supply for raw material is tight, and processors are struggling. The offer levels for AFR 10 were around US$2000/mt on a FOB basis, with some offers even higher..

Meanwhile, there were trades for SIR 20 reported in the range of US$2020-US$2030/mt on an FOB basis. The majority of buyers are waiting for more clarity on the tariff situation and monetary policies across the globe.. 

Macro factors 

There is a notable level of uncertainty regarding tariffs and the degree to which this uncertainty may negatively impact business. The market anticipates a reduction in interest rates when the European Central Bank convenes mid-week. However, there remains uncertainty in light of the prevailing geopolitical conditions.

The outlook regarding the Federal Reserve has become increasingly ambiguous at this juncture. Tariffs on Canada and Mexico are set to be implemented this week, and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports is set to be implemented this week, coinciding with the commencement of the National People's Congress's third annual session.

The summary from our predictive forecasting this week:

To see more and compare the physical and futures spread, click here. Email any of our team members to understand our forecasting solution.

Rubber trading cautious as backwardation steepens 

Helixtap Daily Physical Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed STR20 US$2120/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, steady
• Helixtap assessed SIR20 US$2017.5/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya, up US$2.5
• Helixtap assessed AFR10 US$2020/mt CFR Hamburg Rotterdam, steady 
• Helixtap implied AFR10 US$1990/mt FOB Abidjan, steady

Helixtap weekly Raw Material Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed Indonesian raw material IDR 30,000/kg ex-works, up IDR 200
• Helixtap assessed Thai raw material THB 62/kg ex-works, up THB 1
• Helixtap assessed Bulk latex US$1610/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, up US$10

Helixtap weekly Physical Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed SVR10 US$2035/mt FOB Ho chi minh, up US$25
• Helixtap assessed SMR20 US$2110/mt FOB Klang Penang, down US$30
• Helixtap assessed TSR 20 US$2100/mt CIF China, down US$40

Helixtap ESG Prices guide (Based on Helixtap assessment and fixed premium basis)

• Helixtap ESG price guide AFR10 is US$2060/mt FOB Abidjan
• Helixtap ESG price guide for SIR20 is US$2097.5/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya

Market sentiment was “Slightly bearish” - Helixtap sentiment tracker 

Spot rubber prices traded sideways with slight weakening of the sentiment during the Asian trade day owing to heightened caution, even as the spot market remained volatile and demand concerns remained intact. Backwardations have steepened in China on ongoing supply concerns ahead of the wintering season in Thailand.

The markets remained tight in terms of raw material availability. Additionally, some active buying from China over the week solidly supported premiums. According to Thai producer sources, the processors/producers are unable to obtain the required raw material.

China's backwardation 

The Chinese rubber market is witnessing a backwardation. Helixtap market intelligence indicates a notable increase in purchasing activity, particularly for prompt cargoes, which is driving the rise in prices. With prompt shipments higher than in previous months, a trader source noted that prices are stuck in a narrow range, and traders/buyers are waiting for breakouts.

This, however, has impacted the buying interest for the international buyers trading in the Chinese market. Meanwhile, in China, the buyers are largely looking at booking profit on the spread. However, slight bearishness in the sentiment during the day resulted in some correction in prices. On a CIF basis, trades for the STR 20 mixture ranged from US$2095 to US$2100/mt.

The current backwardized market is largely due to insufficient liquidity and higher-than-average volatility. With the destocking in China and wintering, the market expects the situation to continue for the next couple of weeks. A trader source noted that the majority of stocks in China are controlled by some of the major players, which is adding to the tightness in supply. 

Backwardation is theoretically a bullish sign. With the overall rubber demand still depressed and likely to remain until the EUDR buying returns to the market, it is at least a sign of somewhat better times for producers.

The market expectation is that rubber demand would be depressed for the first half of the year, especially amid the ongoing tariffs battle with the US and bearish cues from the major economies.

Market activities muted 

Meanwhile, the buyers and sellers opted to stay on the sidelines to insulate themselves from the volatility. An Indonesian producer source noted that the market is volatile, so they are waiting for next week to resume offers.

However, some regular buyers were seen in the market. Consequently, the market reported few trades for SIR 20 in the range of US$2015-US$2020/mt on a FOB basis. On the other hand, SVR 20 prices continued to inch up amid limited supply. A trader source noted SVR 10 offers ranged from US$2050 to US$2070/mt on an FOB basis.

Supply issues supporting prices

Rubber production has declined lately, with early wintering in Africa and the onset of the same in Vietnam, which would keep excess rubber off the market. Inventories in China have been declining, meaning that the oversupply may not be as drastic as feared.

A Thai producer's source noted that the raw material prices are holding firm, and he did not see any offers for Thai cup lumps in the market during the Asian trade day. The northeastern part of Thailand has also stopped producing, and for other regions, wintering is “just around the corner.”. Therefore, the supply is decreasing with each passing day, he added.

Spot firm on Chinese buying amid tight supply 

Helixtap Daily Physical Prices Assessment 

• Helixtap assessed STR20 US$2120/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, up US$10
• Helixtap assessed SIR20 US$2015/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya, up US$5
• Helixtap assessed AFR10 US$2020/mt CFR Hamburg Rotterdam, up US$10
• Helixtap implied AFR10 US$1990/mt FOB Abidjan, up US$10

Helixtap ESG Prices guide (Based on Helixtap assessment and fixed premium basis)

• Helixtap ESG price guide AFR10 is US$2060/mt FOB Abidjan
• Helixtap ESG price guide for SIR20 is US$2095/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya

Market sentiment was “Slightly Bullish” - Helixtap sentiment tracker 

Prices for rubber are mired in an upward momentum, triggered by prompt Chinese buying, along with supply concerns heightening. The market participants are thus optimistic for more price support in the short-term period.

Chinese tire makers are gradually returning 

Increased market activities in the Chinese market resulted in some uptick in the physical rubber prices. According to Helixtap market intelligence, there has been a significant surge in buying, especially for prompt cargoes, which is prompting the price increase. “Nearby cargoes are more expensive than May cargoes,” said a Singapore-based source.

There were trades for the STR 20 mixture reported in the range of US$2090-US$2100/mt on a CIF basis, while the SMR 20 mixture was traded in the range of US$2070-US$2080/mt on a CIF basis. A trader source noted that the Chinese buying was active today, and there was more interest for the March and April shipments, which is creating a sense of urgency in the market.

Meanwhile, inquiries from the Chinese tire makers indicate some recovery in demand. Lately, the majority of purchases have been made by arbitrage buyers. However, this week some Chinese tire makers are back in the market. 

An anticipated gradual increase in downstream production is likely to provide a level of demand support for rubber. The combination of this factor and a minor reduction in inventory could provide some short-term support. “They (Chinese tire makers) are there; demand seems to be increasing,” the Singapore-based source added. 

Earlier this week, profit booking from China took a toll on the prices, which, coupled with the tension around the tariff battle between the US and China, kept the market confidence low. Nevertheless, as Chinese tire makers gradually return to the market, it can lend some fundamental support to the market.

In addition, production in certain areas in China is currently experiencing a suspension, resulting in the consolidation of raw material prices at the higher end. The only cap could come from the overall healthy stock situation amid fluctuating forex, which could divert the buying to the domestic market.

Supply short 

On the other hand, the supply in the market continued to tighten. With wintering already started in Vietnam and Africa, market sources noted that certain parts of Thailand have also stopped production.

Meanwhile, the supply from the south of Thailand is relatively better but is disrupted by unprecedented rains. A Thailand-based source noted that the South would start wintering soon, and the rains are impacting the last leg of the peak production period.

The situation in Indonesia was also similar. There were reports of flooding in the regions of Jambi and Bengkulu in Indonesia. Additionally, Sumatra is also witnessing an increase in rainfall, and North Sumatra is expected to start wintering in March.

These factors indicate an overall supply shortage, which gives the producers/processors the incentive to hold on to the offers. In the interim, the market is observing the US economic policy decisions, particularly the US Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation, which would determine the Fed’s stance.

Range bound spot despite wintering 

Helixtap Daily Physical Prices Assessment 

• Helixtap assessed STR20 US$2110/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, down US$5
• Helixtap assessed SIR20 US$2010/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya, down US$5
• Helixtap assessed AFR10 US$2010/mt CFR Hamburg Rotterdam, down US$5
• Helixtap implied AFR10 US$1980/mt FOB Abidjan, down US$5

Helixtap ESG Prices guide (Based on Helixtap assessment and fixed premium basis)

• Helixtap ESG price guide AFR10 is US$2050/mt FOB Abidjan
• Helixtap ESG price guide for SIR20 is US$2090/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya

Market sentiment was “Slightly Bearish” - Helixtap sentiment tracker 

The spot rubber prices remained largely rangebound during the Asian trade day amid a wider bearish demand scenario and some supply shortage. The sentiment was slightly bearish, driven by a mixture of fundamentals, geopolitics, and speculator readjustments.

The market is seeing a downward trend because of the sentiment related to the US and China, but also because funds are increasing short positions. On a FOB basis, SIR 20 reportedly traded between US$2005-US$2010/mt. News surrounding the ongoing US and China trade war has been fuelling a bearish rubber complex.

While expectations of wet weather set a more optimistic market view on rubber prices, further upside has been introduced by reports of the possibility of Chinese stimulus in March.

The bounce in the rubber was speculation driven; the limited buying from the tire makers means fundamentals are bearish, so at some point, they would dominate the technical.

Sellers are apprehensive 

Meanwhile, the producers/processors were not keen on actively offering into the market. According to some producer sources, the winter has tightened the supply of raw materials in the market, which gives the producers the ability to hold on to the offers.

While the SVR 10 offers were steady in the range of US$2040-US$2050/mt on an FOB basis, the Thai offers are gradually stabilizing. The tapping has almost stopped in Vietnam and part of Thailand, which is nudging the raw material prices up.

In addition, significant rainfall in southern Thailand is affecting production in the region. The Thai Meteorological Department issued a warning on potential flash floods and overflow conditions resulting from significant rainfall in the South. Additionally, farmers are urged to take measures to protect their crops from potential harm.

Chinese buying is expected to pick up

The buying sentiment in China remained relatively good even though the buying continued to be skewed towards arbitrage buyers and prompt shipments. A market source noted that the TSR mixture is seeing better prices due to limited liquidity in the market.

The market expects to see a gradual increase in downstream production, which could lead to a certain degree of demand support for rubber. This, coupled with a slight decrease in inventory, might lend some support in the short term. However, the end users are yet to actively buy.

Macro factors

The recent rising trade tensions and significant price fluctuations indicate that the market is concerned about the strength of the US economy. Asian and emerging markets are likely to face significant challenges, regardless of the status of their domestic market demand.

U.S. consumer confidence declined at its most rapid rate during February, alongside a notable increase in inflation expectations pointing to growing unease among consumers about economic stability. However, additional rate cuts by the Fed this year could mitigate any severe impact on demand.

The EU’s EV sales improved, but overall, it was bearish 

Sales of fully electric vehicles in January indicated a 37.3% increase in Europe. However, this did not offset the decline in petrol and diesel vehicle sales, resulting in an overall decrease of 2.1%.

Data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) indicated that the all-electric brand Tesla experienced a 45.2% decline in the European Union, Britain, and the European Free Trade Area. In contrast, sales for its Chinese competitor SAIC Motor.

European carmakers, while contending with competition from China, are strategizing for the possibility of import tariffs that may be enacted by Trump.

Profit booking in China weighs on spot 

Helixtap Daily Physical Prices Assessment 

• Helixtap assessed STR20 US$2115/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, down US$30
• Helixtap assessed SIR20 US$2015/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya, down US$35
• Helixtap assessed AFR10 US$2015/mt CFR Hamburg Rotterdam, down US$30
• Helixtap implied AFR10 US$1985/mt FOB Abidjan, down US$30

Helixtap ESG Prices guide (Based on Helixtap assessment and fixed premium basis)

• Helixtap ESG price guide AFR10 is US$2055/mt FOB Abidjan
• Helixtap ESG price guide for SIR20 is US$2095/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya

Market sentiment was “Bearish” - Helixtap sentiment tracker 

The physical rubber market slid during the Asian trade day amid profit booking in China, weighing upon the overall market sentiment. This nudged the majority of the buyers and sellers to the sidelines, muting the international market activities.

Sell-off in the Chinese market weighed on the market 

With the overall bearishness in demand and increasing tension amid US and China, there were reports of profit booking in the Chinese market which resulted in the unexpected decline in a price both in futures and physical market. 

The buying was however largely restricted to warehouse cargoes keeping the Chinese buyers awayf from the international market. A trader source noted that lot of volume was traded but mostly in Chinese yuan. The traded level for the prompt shipments ranged between RMB 17000-RMB17080/mt (US$2345-US$2355/mt). 

Even though the key rubber-producing nations are nearing the wintering season, the bearish sentiment has already taken hold. In addition, the unease following the order from Trump aimed at limiting Chinese investments in critical sectors, including chips and AI, continued to dampen the sentiment.

The recent spike in the prices was primarily driven by the optimism in the stock market around the enthusiasm surrounding China's tech sector. As it diminishes, the funds were expected to move out, resulting in correction as the market fundamentals are still weak, despite some supply shortage.

The actual demand in China has not been strongly indicated by the continued absence of tiremakers in the market after the Lunar New Year holidays. Additionally, there was slight destocking in the warehouse inventory for TSR but not strong enough for the buyers to restock. According to Helixtap Market Intelligence, Chinese stock levels are around 1.3–1.4 million tons.

The physical market stalled 

This resulted in apprehension amid the market participants muting the international market activities. The majority of buyers and sellers opted to stay out of the market. Some sources pointed out that certain regions were already experiencing winter, which made sellers less inclined to offer.

At the buyers’ end, barring some regular buying for SIR 20, there were hardly any trades reported. Reports of trade for SIR 20 ranged from US$2010-US$2020/mt on a FOB basis. Meanwhile, offers for SVR 10 continued to remain on the higher end at around US$2040-US$2050/mt on an FOB basis.

The tapping activities have slowed down significantly in Vietnam and northern Thailand, noted a market source. Meanwhile, unprecedented rains in the south of Thailand have been impacting production in southern Thailand.

The US raises concerns about the impact of EUDR implementation 

A recent letter, backed by several U.S. agricultural commissioners, talks about worries about the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) and how it might hurt the U.S. agriculture and forestry industries.

While the U.S. is categorized as a low-risk nation regarding deforestation, the regulation enforces stringent compliance obligations for the export of commodities,, including rubber, to the EU. One of the key concerns was that the EUDR restricts landowners' capacity to repurpose land for alternative agricultural applications.

The regulation is expected to impose an annual cost of $8 billion on U.S. agricultural exports, raising compliance expenses. The signatories call on U.S. officials to reject the regulation and pursue exemptions for low-risk countries.

This has led to some apprehension among the producers. A producer source noted that the overall demand is already slow, and if there is a further delay in EUDR implementation, it would impact both rubber demand and the prices.

Spot steady on opposing sentiments  

Helixtap Daily Physical Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed STR20 US$2145/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, steady
• Helixtap assessed SIR20 US$2050/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya, steady 
• Helixtap assessed AFR10 US$2045/mt CFR Hamburg Rotterdam, steady
• Helixtap implied AFR10 US$2010/mt FOB Abidjan, steady

Helixtap ESG Prices guide (Based on Helixtap assessment and fixed premium basis)

• Helixtap ESG price guide AFR10 is US$2085/mt FOB Abidjan
• Helixtap ESG price guide for SIR20 is US$2130/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya

Market sentiment was “Slightly bullish” - Helixtap sentiment tracker 

During the Asian trade day, spot rubber prices fluctuated due to conflicting factors. On the one hand, wintering kept supply tight with optimism in the Chinese stock market; on the other hand, US growth fears amid tariff threats nullified any upward movement. 

Sellers are cautious

With some supply shortage amid upcoming wintering in Asia and ongoing in Africa, the supply for the prompt shipments remained limited.  This made the sellers cautious about their offers in the market, leading to a gap between the bid and offer..

The international market activities as a result remained muted. There was buying interest for SIR 20 at around US$2040-US$2045/mt on an FOB basis, while the offer level was around US$2060-US$2070/mt on an FOB basis.

The impact of the supply tightness is gradually becoming predominant in the offer level. According to market sources, there are hardly any offers for African rubber in the market, and the supply from Thailand has also tightened.

A Thailand-based source noted that heavy rains in the south of Thailand are impacting the supply rather than the upcoming winter. On a FOB basis, STR 20 traded in the range of US$2130-US$2140/mt. However, some sources noted that this is beneficial for the buyers who are booking volumes on the physical market rather than on a term contract.

Mixed sentiment in China 

In China, there was a mixed buying sentiment, with some end users choosing to hold back. On the other hand, there were several traders in the market. The ongoing buying spree in China is largely driven by profit booking on the spread rather than real demand recovery.

On a CIF basis, there were some trades for the STR-20 mixture reported in the range of US$2100-US$2110/mt. However, a trader source reported that the market had limited offers, resulting in a shortage that was driving up prices..

Additionally, the optimism in the stock market has kept the funds active in the commodities market as well, supporting the overall sentiment. However, the tariff pressure and recent memorandum from the US instructing the Committee on Foreign Investment to impose limitations on Chinese investments in key sectors could intensify the tension between the US and China..

Meanwhile, the primary influence on the Chinese market will remain the anticipated stimulus measures from the upcoming Congress meeting in March.

US growth fears might dent the market's confidence

The factor denting the market confidence was the slowdown in U.S. business activity, largely driven by increasing concerns regarding tariffs on imports and substantial reductions in federal government spending.

This indicates a weakening of sentiment among businesses and consumers due to growing concerns about the policies of the Trump administration. Anticipating a potential cost increase associated with tariffs led to a change in manufacturing activity. The sales are likely to take a hit due to the unpredictability stemming from the shifting political environment. The impact would be seen in the rubber demand given the auto sector has also been brought under the tariff regime.

The summary from our predictive forecasting this week:

To see more and compare the physical and futures spread, click here. Email any of our team members to understand our forecasting solution.

Caution prevails as prices spike on China push

 Helixtap Daily Physical Prices Assessment

Helixtap assessed STR20 US$ 2145/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, up US$15

Helixtap assessed SIR20 US$ 2050/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya, up US$15

Helixtap assessed AFR10 US$ 2045/mt CFR Hamburg Rotterdam, up US$5

Helixtap implied AFR10 US$2015/mt FOB Abidjan, up US$5

 Helixtap weekly Raw Material Prices Assessment

Helixtap assessed Indonesian raw material IDR 29,800/kg ex-works, down IDR200

Helixtap assessed Thai raw material THB 61/kg ex-works, up THB3  

Helixtap assessed Bulk latex US$ 1600/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, up US$75

 Helixtap weekly Physical Prices Assessment

Helixtap assessed SVR10 US$2010/mt FOB Ho chi minh, up US$10

Helixtap assessed SMR20 US$ 2140/mt FOB Klang Penang, up US$80

Helixtap assessed TSR 20 US$ 2140/mt CIF China, up US$55

 Helixtap ESG Prices guide (Based on Helixtap assessment and fixed premium basis)

Helixtap ESG price guide AFR10 is US$ 2085/mt FOB Abidjan

Helixtap ESG price guide for SIR20 is US$ 2130/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya

 Market sentiment was “bullish” – Helixtap sentiment tracker 

 Rubber prices witnessed volatility throughout the day, with futures initially surging due to a strong rally in Chinese stocks but later correcting and slipping into negative territory. The morning spike was largely driven by speculative fund activity, spurred by optimism surrounding China’s economic sentiment.

Spot firm despite buyers keeping on sidelines

Spot prices remained firm despite weak demand, supported by the impending wintering season in Asia and extended wintering conditions in Africa and the positive China sentiment. Buyers largely kept on the sidelines in the spot market even as prices spiked. Sellers outnumbered buyers in the market. Buyers engaged in arbitrage activities in Shanghai and SICOM, while some expressed concerns that prices might be peaking.

Buyers said prices were peaking due to increased selling of March and April cargoes, which are mostly sold out, with new offers concentrated on May deliveries onwards.

STR20 offers were heard at US$2160/mt CIF China for July shipments, though confirmed trades were lacking. STR20 climbed to US$2150/mt FOB, while SIR20 offers were around US$2050/mt FOB. Some traders quoted SVR10 at US$2050/mt, even as they offered STR20 in the US$2160-2180/mt range in the spot market. AFR10 prices saw an uptick to US$2100 CIF due to extended wintering.

Indonesian raw material prices exhibited mixed movements, with some factories paying IDR 30,300/kg, though overall sales were slow. Some others placed cargoes at IDR 29,000-30,000/kg. In Thailand, raw material prices inched higher, with cup lump at THB 61-61.50/kg and field latex at THB 68-68.50/kg.

Chinese consumers primarily focused on INE-grade rubber, though demand remained moderate due to stable warehouse inventories. Japanese rubber futures ended the week lower in volatile trade, pressured by heightened trade tensions, fresh U.S. tariff threats on automobiles (effective April), and a stronger yen.

Geopolitical and macro factors

China’s recent push in the technology sector, highlighted by the DeepSeek foray and President Xi Jinping’s meeting with tech CEOs, has boosted market sentiment. The gains in the stocks of major Chinese firms like Alibaba had a spillover effect on the rubber market, giving confidence to sellers.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump gave indications of a potential trade deal with China through a more strategic negotiation approach rather than outright confrontation. However, the continued uncertainty on this front continued to confuse the commodity markets, including rubber.

Weather adds to uncertainty

Weather patterns zoomed over the market, with the upcoming wintering in Thailand and ongoing wintering in Africa supporting higher price levels.

The Thai Meteorological Department forecast that from February 23-25, a moderate to strong high-pressure system from China will extend into the Northeast and the South China Sea, leading to an influx of moisture into Thailand. The northeast monsoon and easterly winds will strengthen, bringing increased rainfall, with isolated heavy to very heavy showers in Southern Thailand, which is the hub of rubber production. Farmers have been advised to prepare for potential crop damage and livestock risks. The coming week will unravel how this will impact the market.

Supply risk sparks caution maid buyers; spot northbound 

Helixtap Daily Physical Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed STR20 US$2130/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, up US$20
• Helixtap assessed SIR20 US$2035/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya, up US$25
• Helixtap assessed AFR10 US$2040/mt CFR Hamburg Rotterdam, up US$20
• Helixtap implied AFR10 US$2010/mt FOB Abidjan, up US$20

Helixtap ESG Prices guide (Based on Helixtap assessment and fixed premium basis)

• Helixtap ESG price guide AFR10 is US$2085/mt FOB Abidjan
• Helixtap ESG price guide for SIR20 is US$2125/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya

Market sentiment was “Slightly bullish” - Helixtap sentiment tracker 

Looming wintering in Asia coupled with uncertainties around the US-China tariff battle nudged the spot prices upward across the market despite the overall sluggishness in demand. This resulted in limited spot trading activities barring some regular buying.

Supply concerns heightening 

With Africa already wintering, the supply from the region has been tight. Meanwhile, amid bad weather conditions and the upcoming winter, Thai cup lump prices are getting impacted. According to Thai producer sources, the Thai cup lump prices are northbound amid a low demand situation.

The Thai Meteorological Department forecasts indicate a likelihood of ongoing rainfall across Thailand until late February. This may result in the development of thunderstorms in upper Thailand, and an increase in rainfall is anticipated in the southern region, potentially affecting the tapping activities.

A Thai producer source noted that the prices are partly impacted by the weather, and the wintering is fast approaching. The Thai cup lump price during the day was around THB 60-THB 61/kg, while field latex was around THB 67.5-THB 68/kg.

Another trader source noted that the supply situation in Vietnam is tight as well as the SVR prices continue to inch up amid limited raw material supply. In addition, the fluctuation in ETH forex is weighing both upon the margins and the buying sentiment.

As per Helixtap market intelligence, with some ease in Indonesian raw material prices recently, the margins are still manageable. However, amid limited demand, the Thai producers are under margin pressure; for some producers, the cost is higher than US$2100/mt at the current raw material price level.

Limited market activities amid volatility 

Meanwhile, during the day with the surge in the TSR prices, some of the buyers opted to stay at the sidelines. With SIR 20 continuing to be the most economical option in the market, there was some buying interest from the Japanese buyers.

There were trades for SIR 20 in the range of US$2030–US$2035/mt on an FOB basis, with some offers around US$2040/mt. An Indonesian producer source noted that most of the sellers have raised their offers but the gap between SIR and other grades continue to remain wide. 

Meanwhile, there is an expectation of a further surge in the raw material prices by the end of this week given the increased domestic competition to secure more volume. As a result, it could further slow down the trading activities.

Macro factors

The market exhibited a cautious approach amid rising pressure from the US tariff proposals, geopolitical concerns, and a prudent outlook from Fed policymakers, all of which negatively impacted the buying sentiment.

Throughout the week, Trump has committed to implementing tariffs on a broad spectrum of imports and plans to impose tariffs on automobiles. This has intensified concerns regarding a potential trade war, resulting in heightened anxiety.

The ongoing ambiguity surrounding the Fed's policy and Trump's tariffs is likely to persist, creating volatility in the markets with no immediate resolution anticipated. As a result, the market is likely to witness increased levels of volatility.

Meanwhile, China maintained its benchmark lending rates at the monthly fixing, indicating a cautious approach by authorities regarding monetary stimulus.

Macro factors adding pressure to rubber volatility

Helixtap Daily Physical Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed STR20 US$2110/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, up US$10
• Helixtap assessed SIR20 US$2010/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya, steady
• Helixtap assessed AFR10 US$2030/mt CFR Hamburg Rotterdam, steady 
• Helixtap implied AFR10 US$2000/mt FOB Abidjan, steady

Helixtap ESG Prices guide (Based on Helixtap assessment and fixed premium basis)

• Helixtap ESG price guide AFR10 is US$2075/mt FOB Abidjan
• Helixtap ESG price guide for SIR20 is US$2100/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya

Market sentiment was “Slightly bullish” - Helixtap sentiment tracker 

Volatility gripped the physical rubber market during the Asian trade day. Increasing growing pressures from fickle market sentiment and funds trading, added to the recent volatility from ongoing geopolitical and global supply-side factors.

Physical holds steady despite dip in futures 

Following a 'wait and see' approach in the market, there was a correction in the futures. An additional round of threats from the US regarding pharmaceutical and semiconductor imports. U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that sectoral tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductor chips would initiate at 25% or higher with chance of increase over the course of a year." He indicated similar plans for automobiles as well, starting April 2.

The market seemed to be processing the recent developments. The physical market participants, although cautious, tried to shift their focus away from tariff concerns. However, this has resulted in currency volatility, complicating the ability of buyers and sellers to engage actively in the market.

As a result, the physical price remained rangebound despite muted market activities. There were some offers in market, while some sellers intended to hold on, others adjusted to the buyer’s level. There were trades for SIR 20 in the range of US$2000–US$2010/mt on an FOB basis, with some offers as high as US$2040/mt. A trader source noted that it is difficult for some producers to match the bid level, as that would make them sell under cost.

Meanwhile, the offer levels for STR 10 and SVR 10 remained largely unchanged amid unpredictable weather conditions and upcoming wintering.

Chinese buying is fickle; some restocking 

Meanwhile, the Chinese market slowed down after receiving tariff indications from the US. There was limited buying interest during the day with a correction in the traded level for the STR 20 mixture, which was around US$2060-US$2065/mt on a CIF basis. A Singapore-based source noted that, given that the buying was largely from arbitrage buyers, it did not make sense for them to book volumes today..

However, there was some recovery in buying later in the day as the market expected China to maintain its benchmark lending rates. The central bank has taken a measured stance in its recent cash injection.

There is still some strong demand and prices for very prompt cargoes. While the Chinese inventory level is over 1 million tons, according to Helixtap market intelligence, the restocking for TSR was not strong enough. Thus, market participants expect the buying for TSR would continue even though the buying would see limited presence of the end users or tire makers.

Some African producers are concentrating on LTC volumes 

At the African front, the offers for the AFR cargoes remained limited due to early wintering. There is some shortage of cup lump which is limiting the supply in the market. However, some sources noted that some producers are concentrating on fulfilling/securing the volume for EUDR term contracts for the second and third quarters of the year. Meanwhile, a trader added that buying has shifted to direct sales lately rather than the physical market..

Rubber prices strong but caution prevails amid uncertainty

Helixtap Daily Physical Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed STR20 US$2100/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, steady
• Helixtap assessed SIR20 US$2010/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya, steady
• Helixtap assessed AFR10 US$2030/mt CFR Hamburg Rotterdam, steady 
• Helixtap implied AFR10 US$2000/mt FOB Abidjan, steady

Helixtap ESG Prices guide (Based on Helixtap assessment and fixed premium basis)

• Helixtap ESG price guide AFR10 is US$2075/mt FOB Abidjan
• Helixtap ESG price guide for SIR20 is US$2100/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya

Market sentiment was “Slightly bullish” - Helixtap sentiment tracker 

The physical rubber market continues to be characterized by poor supply and demand dynamics, which are further exacerbated by extra-market uncertainties as market participants slow down and limit trading activities. Meanwhile, the recent correction in raw material prices in Asia has kept the margins secure for producers.

Market cautious due to macro factors

Amid continued volatility, the market remained cautious, impacting the overall buying sentiment. With the surge in futures, there was some reluctance amid the sellers to match the bid level. However, there was an overall upward bias in the market.

The trigger for the prices during the day has largely been the macro factors impacting the sentiment. With strength in China's tech sector and the spillover into the overall market and impressive Japanese GDP figures, there was confidence in the market. The ongoing recovery in Chinese markets bolstered the crude oil prices, and the depreciation of the Asian currencies against the US dollar supported the rubber market sentiments.

Trades for the STR STR 20 mixture during the day were in the range of US$2080-US$2085/mt on a CIF basis and offers around US$2090-US$2110/mt on a CIF basis.

However, it also inched up the uncertainty in the market amid ongoing geopolitical tensions concerning U.S.-Europe relations and the peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. The peace agreement is likely to result in the normalization of shipping volumes in the Black Sea, which is likely to exert deflationary pressure on dry bulk shipping rates and commodities.

In the context of optimism, the market is looking forward to additional Chinese stimulus measures. In January, Chinese banks issued 5.13 trillion yuan ($706.40 billion) in new yuan loans, surpassing market expectations. The central bank announced last week that it plans to modify its monetary policy. Thus, the market is closely monitoring the upcoming annual parliament meeting in March, where the government is anticipated to present new stimulus measures in conjunction with economic targets.

Supply is getting tighter

While the inflow of volume remained limited from Africa, some sources noted a slowdown in Vietnamese production. According to a trader source, the supply from Vietnam has dropped to 70%. There were trades for SVR 10 in the range of US$1990-US$2000/mt on an FOB basis with some offers as high as US$2040/mt on an FOB basis.

The supply, on the other hand, from Thailand and Indonesia remained steady. However, according to Thai Meteorological Department forecasts, there is a chance of continuous rainfall throughout Thailand from February 17 to February 22, 2025. This could lead to the occurrence of thunderstorms in certain regions of upper Thailand. Additionally, there is an expectation of heightened rainfall in the southern region, which could impact the tapping activities.

There are apprehensions regarding a constrained natural rubber supply stemming from the current wintering conditions and adverse weather in key producing nations. Indonesia, on the other hand, has seen a slight uptick in the tapping owing to improved prices in the market, which could cap any support for the prices.

Margins still secure 

The producers across the region are more or less in a secure position amid some correction in raw material prices in Asia and a surge in the overall TSR prices. While Indonesian producers are currently selling closest to their costs, Thai and African producers are in a relatively better position..

As per Helixtap, the spread between the Indonesian cup lump and TSR is US$150/mt, which has narrowed from the December average of US$200/mt. In the case of Thailand, it has widened from low US$300 to mis-US$300 level. However, amid wintering the spread narrowed for the African producers.

Rubber market exhibits mixed trends

Helixtap Daily Physical Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed STR20 US$2100/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, steady
• Helixtap assessed SIR20 US$2010/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya, up US$25
• Helixtap assessed AFR10 US$2030/mt CFR Hamburg Rotterdam, up US$5
• Helixtap implied AFR10 US$2000/mt FOB Abidjan, up US$5

Helixtap ESG Prices guide (Based on Helixtap assessment and fixed premium basis)

• Helixtap ESG price guide AFR10 is US$2075/mt FOB Abidjan
• Helixtap ESG price guide for SIR20 is US$2100/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya

Market sentiment was “Slightly bearish” - Helixtap sentiment tracker 

The physical rubber market saw volatility persist with some positive demand signs amid slight weakness in the futures. Meanwhile, with wintering in Africa, Indonesian rubber prices yielded to the northbound movement in the physical prices, resulting in a slight decoupling from the futures market..

SIR finally catches up

Indonesian rubber prices have been under steady pressure for the past few quarters, while notable volatility has marked the rubber market. However, the widening spread between SIR and other sources has made SIR 20 the most economical option. This resulted in some revival in buying interest supported by the weakness in the futures.

On a FOB basis, the trades for SIR 20 during the day ranged from US$2000 to US$2010/mt. However, the buying was largely restricted to the regular buyers in the market while the western market continued to stay on the sidelines. There were reports of some buying interest from the US market, but there were no volumes booked by any major tire makers.

The overall demand is yet to see much recovery, keeping the international market activities relatively muted. However, the general optimism in the Chinese stock market has been driving the sentiment. That does underscore the likely fleeting nature of the current support for the prices.

In addition, the weaker dollar aided the buying sentiment given the ongoing rebound in China. Also contributing to the buying sentiment is the delay in implementation of the US tariff proposals. It brought some relief to markets.

Various sources noted that prices were overinflated at the closing of last week; thus, a correction is likely this week. However, some producer sources noted that the buyers have to restock sooner or later irrespective of the market situation.

Africa-driven supply shortage

Meanwhile, offers for African shipments remained limited amid reports of early wintering. There is observable price support linked to the arrival of early winter conditions. According to Helixtap market sources, there were limited offers and some delays in shipments from Ivory Coast, which is the likely result of the supply constraints resulting from the early onset of winter. This limits the accessibility of affordable African cargo to the Asian market, which is expected to bolster it in the near term.

On the Asian front, the market remains adequately supplied due to the delay in wintering. There is already some correction in Thai cup lump prices; Indonesian farmgate prices saw a significant correction. Compared to the level of February 10, prices have seen a 2% correction on February 17.

China's market is still active

Meanwhile, market activity in the Chinese market remained stable. Despite the limited presence of end users in the market, arbitrage buying has continued to drive volume. However, market sources say there are not too many willing sellers given the overall surge in the physical prices, given the weakness in the futures market. There were trades for the STR 20 mixture reported in the range of US$2060-US$2070/mt on a CIF basis.

The summary from our predictive forecasting this week:

To see more and compare the physical and futures spread, click here. Email any of our team members to understand our forecasting solution.

Rubber Market Sees Brief Rebound

Helixtap Daily Physical Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed STR20 US$2095/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, up US$15
• Helixtap assessed SIR20 US$1970/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya, up US$10
• Helixtap assessed AFR10 US$2000/mt CFR Hamburg Rotterdam, up US$15
• Helixtap implied AFR10 US$1970/mt FOB Abidjan, down US$15

Helixtap weekly Raw Material Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed Indonesian raw material IDR 29,000/kg ex-works, down IDR 1000
• Helixtap assessed Thai raw material THB 60/kg ex-works, down THB 3
• Helixtap assessed Bulk latex US$1530/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, down US$140

Helixtap weekly Physical Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed SVR10 US$2040/mt FOB Ho chi minh, steady
• Helixtap assessed SMR20 US$2060/mt FOB Klang Penang, down US$60
• Helixtap assessed TSR 20 US$2030/mt CIF China, down US$50

Helixtap ESG Prices guide (Based on Helixtap assessment and fixed premium basis)

• Helixtap ESG price guide AFR10 is US$2040/mt FOB Abidjan
• Helixtap ESG price guide for SIR20 is US$2050/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya

Market sentiment was “Slightly bullish” - Helixtap sentiment tracker

The physical rubber market experienced a brief reprieve during the Asian trade day following a week of significant declines. The support largely comes from the upward momentum in rubber markets with some technical support and stable crude oil prices alongside a stronger US dollar.

In addition, the supply is tight due to the seasonal tightening of raw materials in key producing countries, like Thailand, Vietnam, and Africa. Furthermore, the prevailing optimism regarding additional stimulus measures from China kept the market slightly positive.

There was a slight uptick in the offers level with SIR offered in the range of US$1970-US$1985/mt on an FOB basis, even though it was considered as higher offers given the buying interest was around US$1950/mt on an FOB basis.

There was some support for prime STR 20 offers as well, which ranged between US$2100 and US$2110/mt on an FOB basis. The buyers were, however, largely cautious during the day, awaiting some stability in the market. There is some optimism among the market participants that the correction in the price can bring some buyers back.

The raw material situation 

There was some correction in the raw material prices this week owing to bearish demand cues despite wintering. According to Helixtap market intelligence, Thailand's production levels have decreased by approximately 50%. The decline in demand is exerting downward pressure on prices.

A Thailand-based producer source noted that there is a wide range of offers hovering between US$1490/mt and US$1600/mt depending on the positions they have. The supply in these regions remains constrained; however, restocking is typically minimal during or in anticipation of the winter season. This suggests a concern regarding the future demand trajectory.

Despite this week's correction, raw material prices in Indonesia continued to rise. The producers noted that raw material prices have to see more corrections to enable them to offer their cargoes at competitive rates with positive margins.

Eyes on China 

The physical rubber market has shown a persistent decline, mirroring the downturn seen in rubber futures markets, which can be linked to the underwhelming performance of the Chinese economy.

China, in contrast, maintained its activity in response to the price corrections. Certain sources indicated that inquiries had been made by Chinese tire manufacturers as well.

The market has not yet observed any significant stimulus announcement following the conclusion of the “Two Sessions” meeting in China.

Currently, it seems that the anticipations regarding stimulus commitments were excessively hopeful. The market participants are anticipating China to discuss further measures aimed at boosting domestic consumption. The deflationary pressures in China have intensified worries about economic growth, and the steep correction this week seemed to be somewhat of an impulsive reaction.

Meanwhile, recently, there has been a notable rise in the volume flow of rubber into INE. This has resulted in a careful outlook within the market concerning the possibility of additional corrections.

However, some market sources noted that this is not out of ordinary as once the sales were completed, the markets would have already acknowledged that fact which should not impact the pricing sentiment a lot.

US dilemma

Increasing global trade tensions, however, capped a stronger recovery. A possible government shutdown in the US temporarily alleviated concerns over trade wars. The market's sensitivity to news was minimal, indicating a significant increase in anxiety.

Spot rubber prices witness lows as market tackles downturn

Helixtap Daily Physical Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed STR20 US$2140/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, down US$20
• Helixtap assessed SIR20 US$1990/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya, down US$30
• Helixtap assessed AFR10 US$2020/mt CFR Hamburg Rotterdam, down US$20
• Helixtap implied AFR10 US$1990/mt FOB Abidjan, down US$20

Helixtap weekly Raw Material Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed Indonesian raw material IDR 30,000/kg ex-works, steady
• Helixtap assessed Thai raw material THB 63/kg ex-works, up THB 1
• Helixtap assessed Bulk latex US$1670/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, up US$60

Helixtap weekly Physical Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed SVR10 US$2040/mt FOB Ho chi minh, up US$5
• Helixtap assessed SMR20 US$21200/mt FOB Klang Penang, up US$10
• Helixtap assessed TSR 20 US$2080/mt CIF China, down US$20

Helixtap ESG Prices guide (Based on Helixtap assessment and fixed premium basis)

• Helixtap ESG price guide AFR10 is US$2060/mt FOB Abidjan
• Helixtap ESG price guide for SIR20 is US$2070/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya

Market sentiment was “Bearish” - Helixtap sentiment tracker 

The spot rubber prices stumbled during the Asian trade, continuing with the volatile trend seen over the week despite limited availability of cargoes. In the week ended on March 07, physical prices have fallen much faster, as market participants noted that there is limited reason for the buyers to book volumes amid the uncertainty.

Rubber prices have seen increased volatility in the past few weeks due to the uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade war, coupled with the winter and supply shortages. The bid and offer gap was seen widening, indicating lower buyers’ confidence. There was a slowdown in the Chinese market amid widespread bearishness.

A producer source noted that the market is in a strange state; on one hand, the production is limited due to wintering. On the other hand, the buying is also muted. There were some trades reported for SIR 20 around US$1980-US$1990/mt on an FOB basis, but largely by the regular buyers. The offer level was, however, around US$2010-US$2020/mt on an FOB basis.

While the market activities remained muted, STR 20 prices saw relatively conservative correction. A Thailand-based source added, STR 20 prices are slightly lower in THB terms, but a weaker USD has kept the prices around the same level.. 

Market short on supply 

Meanwhile, the supply situation continued to tighten. According to Helixtap market intelligence, Vietnam has ceased tapping; so have approximately 50–60% of the northeastern and southern regions of Thailand. Consequently, this is leading to inadequate inventory levels of natural rubber, driving the raw material prices higher.

However, there were reports of some low-cost Thai field latex in the market despite the wintering.

Certain traders who acquired volume at lower price points are currently attempting to liquidate their holdings at reduced prices, influenced by pressure from sellers to fulfill delivery obligations.

Concurrently, the market is observing a decline in supply attributed to seasonal factors. The current demand landscape is subdued, primarily due to concerns among latex buyers regarding potential tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. “Looks like we are at a crossroad now,” said a Thailand-based producer source.

The Thai Meteorological Department has released a severe weather advisory, predicting storms in the northern regions of the country until March 8. Farmers have been alerted to take necessary precautions in anticipation of potential crop damage resulting from the expected thunderstorms.

Consequently, in light of these weather-related concerns,, the supply is likely to tighten further.

Bearish cues from China 

Amid lack of demand, the weakness in Chinese market sentiment is adding more pressure on the prices, nullifying the impact of the supply shortage. There was some contraction in Chinese imports during January and February, while exports showed signs of diminishing momentum, attributed to increasing tariff pressures from the United States.

Market observers indicate that the decline in imports suggests a slowdown in Chinese buying in anticipation of continued trade challenges. In addition, the recent Parliament meeting did not meet market expectations regarding stimulus announcements, which further dented confidence.

Rubber trading cautious as backwardation steepens 

Helixtap Daily Physical Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed STR20 US$2120/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, steady
• Helixtap assessed SIR20 US$2017.5/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya, up US$2.5
• Helixtap assessed AFR10 US$2020/mt CFR Hamburg Rotterdam, steady 
• Helixtap implied AFR10 US$1990/mt FOB Abidjan, steady

Helixtap weekly Raw Material Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed Indonesian raw material IDR 30,000/kg ex-works, up IDR 200
• Helixtap assessed Thai raw material THB 62/kg ex-works, up THB 1
• Helixtap assessed Bulk latex US$1610/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, up US$10

Helixtap weekly Physical Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed SVR10 US$2035/mt FOB Ho chi minh, up US$25
• Helixtap assessed SMR20 US$2110/mt FOB Klang Penang, down US$30
• Helixtap assessed TSR 20 US$2100/mt CIF China, down US$40

Helixtap ESG Prices guide (Based on Helixtap assessment and fixed premium basis)

• Helixtap ESG price guide AFR10 is US$2060/mt FOB Abidjan
• Helixtap ESG price guide for SIR20 is US$2097.5/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya

Market sentiment was “Slightly bearish” - Helixtap sentiment tracker 

Spot rubber prices traded sideways with slight weakening of the sentiment during the Asian trade day owing to heightened caution, even as the spot market remained volatile and demand concerns remained intact. Backwardations have steepened in China on ongoing supply concerns ahead of the wintering season in Thailand.

The markets remained tight in terms of raw material availability. Additionally, some active buying from China over the week solidly supported premiums. According to Thai producer sources, the processors/producers are unable to obtain the required raw material.

China's backwardation 

The Chinese rubber market is witnessing a backwardation. Helixtap market intelligence indicates a notable increase in purchasing activity, particularly for prompt cargoes, which is driving the rise in prices. With prompt shipments higher than in previous months, a trader source noted that prices are stuck in a narrow range, and traders/buyers are waiting for breakouts.

This, however, has impacted the buying interest for the international buyers trading in the Chinese market. Meanwhile, in China, the buyers are largely looking at booking profit on the spread. However, slight bearishness in the sentiment during the day resulted in some correction in prices. On a CIF basis, trades for the STR 20 mixture ranged from US$2095 to US$2100/mt.

The current backwardized market is largely due to insufficient liquidity and higher-than-average volatility. With the destocking in China and wintering, the market expects the situation to continue for the next couple of weeks. A trader source noted that the majority of stocks in China are controlled by some of the major players, which is adding to the tightness in supply. 

Backwardation is theoretically a bullish sign. With the overall rubber demand still depressed and likely to remain until the EUDR buying returns to the market, it is at least a sign of somewhat better times for producers.

The market expectation is that rubber demand would be depressed for the first half of the year, especially amid the ongoing tariffs battle with the US and bearish cues from the major economies.

Market activities muted 

Meanwhile, the buyers and sellers opted to stay on the sidelines to insulate themselves from the volatility. An Indonesian producer source noted that the market is volatile, so they are waiting for next week to resume offers.

However, some regular buyers were seen in the market. Consequently, the market reported few trades for SIR 20 in the range of US$2015-US$2020/mt on a FOB basis. On the other hand, SVR 20 prices continued to inch up amid limited supply. A trader source noted SVR 10 offers ranged from US$2050 to US$2070/mt on an FOB basis.

Supply issues supporting prices

Rubber production has declined lately, with early wintering in Africa and the onset of the same in Vietnam, which would keep excess rubber off the market. Inventories in China have been declining, meaning that the oversupply may not be as drastic as feared.

A Thai producer's source noted that the raw material prices are holding firm, and he did not see any offers for Thai cup lumps in the market during the Asian trade day. The northeastern part of Thailand has also stopped producing, and for other regions, wintering is “just around the corner.”. Therefore, the supply is decreasing with each passing day, he added.

Caution prevails as prices spike on China push

 Helixtap Daily Physical Prices Assessment

Helixtap assessed STR20 US$ 2145/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, up US$15

Helixtap assessed SIR20 US$ 2050/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya, up US$15

Helixtap assessed AFR10 US$ 2045/mt CFR Hamburg Rotterdam, up US$5

Helixtap implied AFR10 US$2015/mt FOB Abidjan, up US$5

 Helixtap weekly Raw Material Prices Assessment

Helixtap assessed Indonesian raw material IDR 29,800/kg ex-works, down IDR200

Helixtap assessed Thai raw material THB 61/kg ex-works, up THB3  

Helixtap assessed Bulk latex US$ 1600/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, up US$75

 Helixtap weekly Physical Prices Assessment

Helixtap assessed SVR10 US$2010/mt FOB Ho chi minh, up US$10

Helixtap assessed SMR20 US$ 2140/mt FOB Klang Penang, up US$80

Helixtap assessed TSR 20 US$ 2140/mt CIF China, up US$55

 Helixtap ESG Prices guide (Based on Helixtap assessment and fixed premium basis)

Helixtap ESG price guide AFR10 is US$ 2085/mt FOB Abidjan

Helixtap ESG price guide for SIR20 is US$ 2130/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya

 Market sentiment was “bullish” – Helixtap sentiment tracker 

 Rubber prices witnessed volatility throughout the day, with futures initially surging due to a strong rally in Chinese stocks but later correcting and slipping into negative territory. The morning spike was largely driven by speculative fund activity, spurred by optimism surrounding China’s economic sentiment.

Spot firm despite buyers keeping on sidelines

Spot prices remained firm despite weak demand, supported by the impending wintering season in Asia and extended wintering conditions in Africa and the positive China sentiment. Buyers largely kept on the sidelines in the spot market even as prices spiked. Sellers outnumbered buyers in the market. Buyers engaged in arbitrage activities in Shanghai and SICOM, while some expressed concerns that prices might be peaking.

Buyers said prices were peaking due to increased selling of March and April cargoes, which are mostly sold out, with new offers concentrated on May deliveries onwards.

STR20 offers were heard at US$2160/mt CIF China for July shipments, though confirmed trades were lacking. STR20 climbed to US$2150/mt FOB, while SIR20 offers were around US$2050/mt FOB. Some traders quoted SVR10 at US$2050/mt, even as they offered STR20 in the US$2160-2180/mt range in the spot market. AFR10 prices saw an uptick to US$2100 CIF due to extended wintering.

Indonesian raw material prices exhibited mixed movements, with some factories paying IDR 30,300/kg, though overall sales were slow. Some others placed cargoes at IDR 29,000-30,000/kg. In Thailand, raw material prices inched higher, with cup lump at THB 61-61.50/kg and field latex at THB 68-68.50/kg.

Chinese consumers primarily focused on INE-grade rubber, though demand remained moderate due to stable warehouse inventories. Japanese rubber futures ended the week lower in volatile trade, pressured by heightened trade tensions, fresh U.S. tariff threats on automobiles (effective April), and a stronger yen.

Geopolitical and macro factors

China’s recent push in the technology sector, highlighted by the DeepSeek foray and President Xi Jinping’s meeting with tech CEOs, has boosted market sentiment. The gains in the stocks of major Chinese firms like Alibaba had a spillover effect on the rubber market, giving confidence to sellers.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump gave indications of a potential trade deal with China through a more strategic negotiation approach rather than outright confrontation. However, the continued uncertainty on this front continued to confuse the commodity markets, including rubber.

Weather adds to uncertainty

Weather patterns zoomed over the market, with the upcoming wintering in Thailand and ongoing wintering in Africa supporting higher price levels.

The Thai Meteorological Department forecast that from February 23-25, a moderate to strong high-pressure system from China will extend into the Northeast and the South China Sea, leading to an influx of moisture into Thailand. The northeast monsoon and easterly winds will strengthen, bringing increased rainfall, with isolated heavy to very heavy showers in Southern Thailand, which is the hub of rubber production. Farmers have been advised to prepare for potential crop damage and livestock risks. The coming week will unravel how this will impact the market.

Rubber Market Sees Brief Rebound

Helixtap Daily Physical Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed STR20 US$2095/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, up US$15
• Helixtap assessed SIR20 US$1970/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya, up US$10
• Helixtap assessed AFR10 US$2000/mt CFR Hamburg Rotterdam, up US$15
• Helixtap implied AFR10 US$1970/mt FOB Abidjan, down US$15

Helixtap weekly Raw Material Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed Indonesian raw material IDR 29,000/kg ex-works, down IDR 1000
• Helixtap assessed Thai raw material THB 60/kg ex-works, down THB 3
• Helixtap assessed Bulk latex US$1530/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, down US$140

Helixtap weekly Physical Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed SVR10 US$2040/mt FOB Ho chi minh, steady
• Helixtap assessed SMR20 US$2060/mt FOB Klang Penang, down US$60
• Helixtap assessed TSR 20 US$2030/mt CIF China, down US$50

Helixtap ESG Prices guide (Based on Helixtap assessment and fixed premium basis)

• Helixtap ESG price guide AFR10 is US$2040/mt FOB Abidjan
• Helixtap ESG price guide for SIR20 is US$2050/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya

Market sentiment was “Slightly bullish” - Helixtap sentiment tracker

The physical rubber market experienced a brief reprieve during the Asian trade day following a week of significant declines. The support largely comes from the upward momentum in rubber markets with some technical support and stable crude oil prices alongside a stronger US dollar.

In addition, the supply is tight due to the seasonal tightening of raw materials in key producing countries, like Thailand, Vietnam, and Africa. Furthermore, the prevailing optimism regarding additional stimulus measures from China kept the market slightly positive.

There was a slight uptick in the offers level with SIR offered in the range of US$1970-US$1985/mt on an FOB basis, even though it was considered as higher offers given the buying interest was around US$1950/mt on an FOB basis.

There was some support for prime STR 20 offers as well, which ranged between US$2100 and US$2110/mt on an FOB basis. The buyers were, however, largely cautious during the day, awaiting some stability in the market. There is some optimism among the market participants that the correction in the price can bring some buyers back.

The raw material situation 

There was some correction in the raw material prices this week owing to bearish demand cues despite wintering. According to Helixtap market intelligence, Thailand's production levels have decreased by approximately 50%. The decline in demand is exerting downward pressure on prices.

A Thailand-based producer source noted that there is a wide range of offers hovering between US$1490/mt and US$1600/mt depending on the positions they have. The supply in these regions remains constrained; however, restocking is typically minimal during or in anticipation of the winter season. This suggests a concern regarding the future demand trajectory.

Despite this week's correction, raw material prices in Indonesia continued to rise. The producers noted that raw material prices have to see more corrections to enable them to offer their cargoes at competitive rates with positive margins.

Eyes on China 

The physical rubber market has shown a persistent decline, mirroring the downturn seen in rubber futures markets, which can be linked to the underwhelming performance of the Chinese economy.

China, in contrast, maintained its activity in response to the price corrections. Certain sources indicated that inquiries had been made by Chinese tire manufacturers as well.

The market has not yet observed any significant stimulus announcement following the conclusion of the “Two Sessions” meeting in China.

Currently, it seems that the anticipations regarding stimulus commitments were excessively hopeful. The market participants are anticipating China to discuss further measures aimed at boosting domestic consumption. The deflationary pressures in China have intensified worries about economic growth, and the steep correction this week seemed to be somewhat of an impulsive reaction.

Meanwhile, recently, there has been a notable rise in the volume flow of rubber into INE. This has resulted in a careful outlook within the market concerning the possibility of additional corrections.

However, some market sources noted that this is not out of ordinary as once the sales were completed, the markets would have already acknowledged that fact which should not impact the pricing sentiment a lot.

US dilemma

Increasing global trade tensions, however, capped a stronger recovery. A possible government shutdown in the US temporarily alleviated concerns over trade wars. The market's sensitivity to news was minimal, indicating a significant increase in anxiety.

Bearish sentiment weighs as wintering cheer fades 

Helixtap Daily Physical Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed STR20 US$2080/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, down US$20
• Helixtap assessed SIR20 US$1960/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya, down US$15
• Helixtap assessed AFR10 US$1985/mt CFR Hamburg Rotterdam, down US$15
• Helixtap implied AFR10 US$1935/mt FOB Abidjan, down US$15

Helixtap ESG Prices guide (Based on Helixtap assessment and fixed premium basis)

• Helixtap ESG price guide AFR10 is US$2025/mt FOB Abidjan
• Helixtap ESG price guide for SIR20 is US$2040 /mt FOB Belawan Surabaya

Market sentiment was “Bearish” - Helixtap sentiment tracker 

The physical rubber prices plunged during the Asian trade day amid weak international buying and a spike in the volume flow into the Chinese exchange. This resulted in muted market activities as some buyers and sellers opted to stay at the sidelines. 

Producers are unwilling to match the market expectation 

With the prices remaining bound south, there was a widespread apprehension amid the producers/processors to lower their prices. A trader source noted that the sellers are unwilling to sell at a discount.

The weakness in the US dollar weighs upon the producer margins owing to the diminishing buffer provided by the currency difference. There were some offers for SIR 20 around US$1975-US$1960/mt on an FOB basis, while the buying interest was around US$10 lower.

The stance to hold was more predominant among some of the Indonesian producers, as they are either at cost or below cost.

On the other hand, there were some corrections in Thai and Vietnam prices. A Thailand-based source noted that the prices are seeing some significant correction this week. The offers for STR 20 prime were in the range of US$2080-US$2090/mt on an FOB basis, close to 3% lower than last week. Given the wide spread between Indonesian and other sources, there is a better scope for price correction for TSR from other sources.

Some believe the prices have the possibility to move as low as the mid-US$1800/mt level, given the ongoing bearishness and lack of demand.

Volume flow into Chinese exchange denting the market sentiment 

Meanwhile, Chinese arbitrage buying continued with some support from Chinese tiremakers buying interests. However, given that the buying was largely skewed towards the arbitrage buying, it failed to support the market.

Lately there has been an increase in the volume flow of rubber into. This has led to a cautious sentiment in the market regarding potential further corrections. Market sources say arbitrage buyers account for most market volume because spreads have not widened enough to close their spreads. This is going to result in an uptick in inventory levels and thus impact overall pricing sentiment.

Meanwhile, some trades for the STR 20 mixture were reported in the range of US$2020-US$2030/mt on a CIF basis.

Macro factors and tariff battles 

The subdued US CPI reading failed to generate significant momentum in the markets, resulting in a lack of optimism among buyers. Another point of consideration is that February's data does not comprehensively reflect the effects of a series of tariffs. Ultimately, the main concern for markets is not inflation but rather growth.

The inflation report presents favorable data; however, it is inherently retrospective and fails to provide insights into future trends or the potential inflationary effects of the current tariffs. The challenging aspect lies in the unpredictability associated with tariffs. On Wednesday, Trump indicated a potential escalation of the global trade conflict by proposing additional tariffs on goods from the European Union.

Spot market exhibits mixed trends despite weak fundamentals

Helixtap Daily Physical Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed STR20 US$2110/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, down US$30
• Helixtap assessed SIR20 US$1975/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya, down US$5
• Helixtap assessed AFR10 US$2000/mt CFR Hamburg Rotterdam, down US$10
• Helixtap implied AFR10 US$1970/mt FOB Abidjan, down US$10

Helixtap ESG Prices guide (Based on Helixtap assessment and fixed premium basis)

• Helixtap ESG price guide AFR10 is US$2040/mt FOB Abidjan
• Helixtap ESG price guide for SIR20 is US$2055/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya

Market sentiment was “Slightly Bearish” - Helixtap sentiment tracker 

The spot rubber market during the Asian trade day saw volatility persist, with overall slight positive demand signs while the trend remained mixed. However, as the day drew to a close, sentiment ultimately yielded to the dominant bearish market forces.

Thai and Vietnam prices are under pressure 

While the wintering has already started in parts of Thailand and the majority of Vietnam, the TSR prices from the regions saw some downward pressure. A Thai-based source noted that production from Thailand is down by around 50%-60%, but weakness in demand is weighing on the prices.

On an FOB basis, there was some correction in the STR 20 prices, with offers ranging from US$2070 to US$2110/mt. According to Helixtap market intelligence, there is some pressure on the producers/processors to liquidate as raw material prices have eased a bit due to poor demand.

The supply in these regions is still tight, but there is limited restocking usually seen during or ahead of wintering. This indicates the apprehension around the demand outlook. With the projections of heavy rains in April from the Thai Meteorological Department, production might witness more disruption. It might cap a steep correction, but weakness in demand and ongoing macroeconomic conditions are weighing more heavily on sentiments.

SIR prices are seeing some support 

Meanwhile, SIR-20 prices managed to stay range-bound during the day. This was triggered by the wide spread between SIR 20 and TSR from other regions. There has been some revival in demand owing to the correction in the prices.

According to Indonesian producer sources, there is ample supply in the market, which should keep some downward pressure on it. However, SIR 20 being the most economical option in the market lends some leverage to narrow the spread with TSR from other regions.

During the day, offers for SIR 20 ranged between US$1970 and US$2000/mt on an FOB basis, while the buying interest was around US$1940 and US$1950/mt on an FOB basis. However, the FOB basis reported trades in the range of US$1970-US$1980/mt..

A trader source noted that in the case of offers directly from the producers, they were on the higher end because they wanted to hold on. However, ahead of the Eid al-Fitr holidays, some sellers might want to liquidate the nearby cargoes to maintain the cash flow. This could weigh on the pricing sentiment.

Chinese buying is active

China on the other hand continued to remain active given the correction in the prices. Some sources noted that there were some inquiries from the Chinese tire makers as well. The On a CIF basis, traders reportedly traded the STR 20 mixture in the range of US$2040-US$2045/mt. Another trader source added that the presence of the Chinese tiremakers is stalled a steep crash even though the sentiment is bearish.

Meanwhile, the movement of Indonesian rubber continued in the INE, and according to Helixtap market intelligence, it is around 60,000 mt. This, however, has made the market apprehensive about further corrections.

Chinese stimulus expectation 

The market is yet to see any strong stimulus announcement after the end of the “Two Sessions” meeting in China. As of now, it appears that the expectations surrounding the promises of stimulus were overly optimistic. The current stimulus measures and bond issuances are unlikely to result in a strong growth rate, given China’s dependence on exports and the looming trade war. China has committed to only limited measures aimed at enhancing consumption and addressing overcapacity issues. The policies indicate that the establishment of a consumer-driven economy is a prolonged and gradual endeavor.

Chinese rubber market active, rest mostly in wait and watch mode 

Helixtap Daily Physical Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed STR20 US$2130/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, up US$15
• Helixtap assessed SIR20 US$1975/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya, up US$15
• Helixtap assessed AFR10 US$2010/mt CFR Hamburg Rotterdam, up US$15
• Helixtap implied AFR10 US$180/mt FOB Abidjan, up US$15

Helixtap ESG Prices guide (Based on Helixtap assessment and fixed premium basis)

• Helixtap ESG price guide AFR10 is US$2050/mt FOB Abidjan
• Helixtap ESG price guide for SIR20 is US$2055/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya

Market sentiment was “Bearish” - Helixtap sentiment tracker 

The physical market witnessed weak demand for spot cargoes with limited trades done while prices saw a marginal improvement even as sellers remained half-hearted. The Chinese market, however, was reported to be active. The producers looked for some support all around the markets since they felt the fall on Monday was severe.

Producers wait to mitigate raw material costs

The Chinese market witnessed trades, especially in STR mixtures, in a market where buying enquiries outnumbered willing suppliers. STR20 Mixture was traded RMB 16400-RMB16700 (US$2260-US$2300/mt).

Raw material prices were high. Indonesian cup lump prices were just below IDR29,500/kg. The producers waited for raw material prices to undergo correction so that they can offer their cargoes competitively. But tight supply due to wintering cast a shadow over their plans. SIR was heard traded at US$1980-1990/mt. African offers were quiet due to wintering in major producer Ivory Coast.

Producers expected some support to prices due to wintering in many producing countries in Southeast Asia and India which continued to stifle supply.

SICOM June contracts, which started the day in the negative territory, moved to the positive terrain, making marginal gains by the end of Tuesday (.31% from yesterday’s close). The May rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) lost .26%, to finish at US$2,366/mt.

The Japanese rubber futures hit a seven-month low on Tuesday, impacted by a stronger yen, even as deflationary pressures make the recovery of China uncertain. However, it also made good recovery by the close of the day. The weak Chinese data weighed on the sentiments of both futures and spot markets while players assessed the impact of various tariffs and the trade wars.

The silver lining on the scene was reports from Indonesia of the country’s EV sector pulling off a growth picture for its car sales in February 2025, the first time since June 2023. Chinese brands are the major players on the scene in Indonesia, which augurs well for the domestic rubber-based industry churning out tires for the automakers.

Macro, geo-political sentiments weigh

US stocks tumbled on Monday over ongoing tariff tiffs and concerns regarding potential federal government shutdown that cast fears of a looming recession amid Trump hinting of a bumpy ride ahead. Disappointing corporate earnings and high stock valuation compared to historical averages are contributory to the crash. Investors and market players remained on the edge watching upcoming inflation reports and interest rate policies as well as possible government action to stabilize the economy.

Chinese reciprocal tariffs on the US started getting implemented from Monday, and analysts say the tanking of the US stock market was partly due to this. The commodity market in Asia took cue from this on Tuesday morning, shedding points. “Generally, the market does not like uncertainty but payers are unsure in which way the markets are going to pan out,” said a trader source in Mumbai. The current happenings and corrections are more sentiment-driven and influenced by geo-political hiccups than fundamentals.

China’s bond yields jumped to a three-month high, aligning with shifting rate cut expectations of investors. Investors trimmed bond holdings on bets that additional fiscal spending will boost growth and reverse interest rate cuts. It showed the global markets remained sensitive to Chinese Central Bank policies. The selloff in bonds followed a rally in the Chinese offshore stock market, signaling a shift of liquidity toward riskier assets.

Jitters around Chinese economic cues hits rubber spot prices 

Helixtap Daily Physical Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed STR20 US$2115/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, down US$25
• Helixtap assessed SIR20 US$1960/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya, down US$30
• Helixtap assessed AFR10 US$1995/mt CFR Hamburg Rotterdam, down US$25
• Helixtap implied AFR10 US$1965/mt FOB Abidjan, down US$25

Helixtap ESG Prices guide (Based on Helixtap assessment and fixed premium basis)

• Helixtap ESG price guide AFR10 is US$2035/mt FOB Abidjan
• Helixtap ESG price guide for SIR20 is US$2040/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya

Market sentiment was “Bearish” - Helixtap sentiment tracker 

The physical rubber markets had a nervous start to the week, with an unusually sharp drop amid weakness in the Chinese market data. There was apprehension among the producers and processors about actively offering in the market given the ongoing wintering. However, lack of demand and bearish sentiment had a stronger impact on the prices.

Muted market activities despite an uptick in inquiries 

There was some uptick in buying interest with the correction in the prices. However, the producers remained hesitant to make any offers. A trader source noted that they did receive inquiries, but there were hardly any offers in the market.

The physical rubber market experienced a continued decline, in alignment with the downturn observed in rubber futures markets, which is attributed to the sluggish performance of the Chinese economy.

The deflationary pressures in China—the key rubber consumer—heightened concerns regarding economic growth. “The market is weak on more poor Chinese data. So, I think it could be a bit knee-jerk today,” added a producer source.

With the prices under the US$2000/mt mark, it might ease the mind block amid the buyers and result in improved buying. As a result, some market participants were optimistic that some revival in buying could potentially cap a steep correction in the physical prices.

While the offers in the market were limited, there were some offers for SIR 20 in the range of US$1960-US$1970/mt on an FOB basis. The Indonesian producers are keen to liquidate prompt cargoes ahead of Eid ul Fitr holidays.

Furthermore, the drop in crude oil prices and the depreciation of the US dollar contributed to the decline in market sentiment. This was primarily due to apprehensions regarding the effects of US import tariffs on global economic growth and demand. “The bear market is not only in rubber, but across equities and others too,” added another producer source..

However, any further correction during the Asian trade day was capped by ongoing worries regarding the natural rubber supply shortage and increasing optimism surrounding Chinese stimulus measures. Chinese policymakers are currently evaluating strategies aimed at enhancing economic growth during the National People’s Congress.

Macro indicators weigh on sentiment 

According to National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data, the consumer price index (CPI) declined 0.7% in February compared to a year earlier, which is the first decline since January 2024.

The seasonal demand has waned, and domestic demand remained frugal, while producer price deflation continued. Although boosts in the technological sector have boosted sentiment, domestic demand is still low. In addition, the trade war poses threats to exports, so the market participants are expecting a more aggressive fiscal policy. This could extend the duration of the deflationary pressures in China.

The summary from our predictive forecasting this week:

To see more and compare the physical and futures spread, click here. Email any of our team members to understand our forecasting solution.

Spot rubber prices witness lows as market tackles downturn

Helixtap Daily Physical Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed STR20 US$2140/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, down US$20
• Helixtap assessed SIR20 US$1990/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya, down US$30
• Helixtap assessed AFR10 US$2020/mt CFR Hamburg Rotterdam, down US$20
• Helixtap implied AFR10 US$1990/mt FOB Abidjan, down US$20

Helixtap weekly Raw Material Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed Indonesian raw material IDR 30,000/kg ex-works, steady
• Helixtap assessed Thai raw material THB 63/kg ex-works, up THB 1
• Helixtap assessed Bulk latex US$1670/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, up US$60

Helixtap weekly Physical Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed SVR10 US$2040/mt FOB Ho chi minh, up US$5
• Helixtap assessed SMR20 US$21200/mt FOB Klang Penang, up US$10
• Helixtap assessed TSR 20 US$2080/mt CIF China, down US$20

Helixtap ESG Prices guide (Based on Helixtap assessment and fixed premium basis)

• Helixtap ESG price guide AFR10 is US$2060/mt FOB Abidjan
• Helixtap ESG price guide for SIR20 is US$2070/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya

Market sentiment was “Bearish” - Helixtap sentiment tracker 

The spot rubber prices stumbled during the Asian trade, continuing with the volatile trend seen over the week despite limited availability of cargoes. In the week ended on March 07, physical prices have fallen much faster, as market participants noted that there is limited reason for the buyers to book volumes amid the uncertainty.

Rubber prices have seen increased volatility in the past few weeks due to the uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade war, coupled with the winter and supply shortages. The bid and offer gap was seen widening, indicating lower buyers’ confidence. There was a slowdown in the Chinese market amid widespread bearishness.

A producer source noted that the market is in a strange state; on one hand, the production is limited due to wintering. On the other hand, the buying is also muted. There were some trades reported for SIR 20 around US$1980-US$1990/mt on an FOB basis, but largely by the regular buyers. The offer level was, however, around US$2010-US$2020/mt on an FOB basis.

While the market activities remained muted, STR 20 prices saw relatively conservative correction. A Thailand-based source added, STR 20 prices are slightly lower in THB terms, but a weaker USD has kept the prices around the same level.. 

Market short on supply 

Meanwhile, the supply situation continued to tighten. According to Helixtap market intelligence, Vietnam has ceased tapping; so have approximately 50–60% of the northeastern and southern regions of Thailand. Consequently, this is leading to inadequate inventory levels of natural rubber, driving the raw material prices higher.

However, there were reports of some low-cost Thai field latex in the market despite the wintering.

Certain traders who acquired volume at lower price points are currently attempting to liquidate their holdings at reduced prices, influenced by pressure from sellers to fulfill delivery obligations.

Concurrently, the market is observing a decline in supply attributed to seasonal factors. The current demand landscape is subdued, primarily due to concerns among latex buyers regarding potential tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. “Looks like we are at a crossroad now,” said a Thailand-based producer source.

The Thai Meteorological Department has released a severe weather advisory, predicting storms in the northern regions of the country until March 8. Farmers have been alerted to take necessary precautions in anticipation of potential crop damage resulting from the expected thunderstorms.

Consequently, in light of these weather-related concerns,, the supply is likely to tighten further.

Bearish cues from China 

Amid lack of demand, the weakness in Chinese market sentiment is adding more pressure on the prices, nullifying the impact of the supply shortage. There was some contraction in Chinese imports during January and February, while exports showed signs of diminishing momentum, attributed to increasing tariff pressures from the United States.

Market observers indicate that the decline in imports suggests a slowdown in Chinese buying in anticipation of continued trade challenges. In addition, the recent Parliament meeting did not meet market expectations regarding stimulus announcements, which further dented confidence.

Active Chinese buying & delay in US auto tariff kept spot market buoyant

Helixtap Daily Physical Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed STR20 US$2160/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, up US$30
• Helixtap assessed SIR20 US$2020/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya, up US$30
• Helixtap assessed AFR10 US$2040/mt CFR Hamburg Rotterdam, up US$25
• Helixtap implied AFR10 US$2010/mt FOB Abidjan, up US$25

Helixtap ESG Prices guide (Based on Helixtap assessment and fixed premium basis)

• Helixtap ESG price guide AFR10 is US$2080/mt FOB Abidjan
• Helixtap ESG price guide for SIR20 is US$2100/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya

Market sentiment was “Bullish” - Helixtap sentiment tracker 

The buoyancy in the physical rubber market sentiment nudged the prices upward, triggered by the delay in the implementation of the new blanket tariff announced by the US on Mexican and Canadian automakers. In addition, the supply shortage and the uptick in Chinese buying also supported the prices.

Slight uptick in buying sentiment 

Despite the prices being northbound, there was a slight improvement in the buying sentiment. While the buying trend was slightly mixed in the international market, the Chinese market remained active.

According to Helixtap market sources, some of the regular buyers opted to stay at the sidelines, but still some end users were seeing booking volumes.

There were some trades reported for SIR 20 at an elevated level compared to the previous day. SIR 20 traded in the range of US$2015–US$2020/mt on an FOB basis during the day. Meanwhile, STR 20 also reportedly traded in the range of US$2015-US$2016/mt on a FOB basis, with smaller volumes. The 

“The market is up due to Trump delaying the automobile tariffs from Canada and Mexico. US stock markets were up last night. China’s stock market is up today,” a Singapore-based source added.

Additionally, the supply continues to remain tight amid wintering in Thailand, Vietnam, and Africa.

Arbitrage buying in China continued

The Chinese market was strong during the day. The strength exhibited by the Chinese stock market also permeated the Chinese rubber market. However, the buying was largely skewed towards arbitrage buying rather than booking by the end users.

A trader source noted that it was largely arbitrage buyers changing goods, with the traded level for STR 20 mixture in the range of US$2100-US$2015/mt on a CIF basis. While the backwardation continued in the Chinese market, the return of some Chinese tiremakers has lent some optimism to the market.

According to a producer source, some tiremakers were active in the market, as expected given their need to restock. Meanwhile, China is awaiting the policy decisions in the annual meeting. China is expected to implement additional fiscal stimulus measures. The Chinese market is facing increasing pressure to implement consumer-focused stimulus measures aimed at combating deflationary trends and decreasing dependence on exports.

Optimism around tariff news trickles into spot price

The physical rubber prices and futures edged up during the Asian Day, driven by the uptick in market confidence as the US delayed the implementation of the 25% blanket tariff on Mexican and Canadian automakers by a month.

A one-month exemption for vehicles that adhere to the intricate content regulations of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement would present a significant advantage. The exemption would also provide advantages to certain foreign brand automakers that have significant production operations in the U.S., such as Honda and Toyota.

There were serious concerns around the impact on rubber demand owing to the tariff battle. Industry reports indicate that the US market intends to purchase around 70% of the 5.3 million light vehicles manufactured in Canada and Mexico. Additionally, numerous vehicles manufactured in the US incorporate propulsion systems and component sets sourced from Canada or Mexico; these components would also be subject to tariffs, thereby raising the costs of vehicles produced domestically.

Increased enquiries on weaker rubber spot prices 

Helixtap Daily Physical Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed STR20 US$2130/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, up US$15
• Helixtap assessed SIR20 US$2000/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya, down US$15
• Helixtap assessed AFR10 US$2015/mt CFR Hamburg Rotterdam, steady
• Helixtap implied AFR10 US$1985/mt FOB Abidjan, steady

Helixtap ESG Prices guide (Based on Helixtap assessment and fixed premium basis)

• Helixtap ESG price guide AFR10 is US$2055/mt FOB Abidjan
• Helixtap ESG price guide for SIR20 is US$2080/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya

Market sentiment was “Bearish” - Helixtap sentiment tracker 

The stress of the intensifying trade war was evident in the physical rubber prices during the Asian Trade Day. While the market sentiment took a hit, there was a slight uptick in the buying interest owing to the correction in the prices. Meanwhile, producers faced challenges due to high-cost raw materials and lower market prices..

Correction in prices as per market expectations 

The market was expecting to see some correction in prices post-implementation of US tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico. There was a significant dip in the traded level TSR from Indonesia. However, amid winter, which led to some shortages, Thai and Vietnamese producers held on to their offers..

There were some trades reported for SIR 20, but the traded level saw some correction compared to the previous day. SIR 20 traded in the range of US$1990–US$2000/mt on an FOB basis during the day. “Sentiments overall are on the the bearish side due to the trade war,” said a producer source.

While the supply for Indonesian raw materials has improved, some of the producers are still struggling with higher raw material costs, denting into the margins. There was some rush amid the Indonesian producers to liquidate the nearby cargoes to maintain their cash flow ahead of the Eid al-Fitr holidays at the end of the month.

On the other hand, Thai and Vietnamese TSR offers remained strong amid wintering. A Thailand-based source noted that the prices have been very volatile lately, which is making it difficult for the buyers.

Given the overall bearishness in the market, there was a slight uptick in the inquiries. However, the active buying came largely from regular buyers. There was some interest for STR 20 as well, with trades for smaller volumes concluded in the range of US$2150-US$2160/mt on FOB, which was deemed by some market sources as “too high.”

Inquiries from Chinese tiremakers 

The correction brought some buying interest from the Chinese tiremakers back in the market. A trader source noted that there were trades for the STR 20 mixture reported in the range of US$2075-US$2085/mt on a CIF basis.

As the production starts picking up post-holiday, the Chinese tiremakers were expected to return to the market. However, the market has yet to see a complete recovery as they await any stimulus decisions post the annual China meeting, which started today.

The nation's legislative body has committed to an action plan aimed at enhancing consumption and stimulating domestic demand as part of its major objectives for 2025. Chinese officials have thus far been reluctant to implement policies aimed at increasing disposable income for consumers. However, these measures are becoming increasingly crucial amid the ongoing trade war with the US. There is a pressing need for Chinese consumers to enhance their purchasing activity, particularly for products that may see reduced demand in other markets due to rising tariffs.

The outlined measures aimed at enhancing consumption this year feature a notable expansion of China's trade-in program initiated last year, which has primarily concentrated on electric vehicles, consumer electronics, and household appliances.

Likelihood of a full-blown trade war weighs on rubber spot market 

Helixtap Daily Physical Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed STR20 US$2115/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, down US$15
• Helixtap assessed SIR20 US$2012.5/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya, down US$15
• Helixtap assessed AFR10 US$2015/mt CFR Hamburg Rotterdam, down US$15
• Helixtap implied AFR10 US$1985/mt FOB Abidjan, down US$15

Helixtap ESG Prices guide (Based on Helixtap assessment and fixed premium basis)

• Helixtap ESG price guide AFR10 is US$2055/mt FOB Abidjan
• Helixtap ESG price guide for SIR20 is US$2092.5/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya

Market sentiment was “Bearish” - Helixtap sentiment tracker 

The spot rubber market took a hit as the US implemented steep tariffs against China, Canada, and Mexico, launching a new trade war. There was widespread skepticism amid the market participants moving their attention to China’s annual meeting scheduled to start on March 5.

Market pauses, sentiments weak 

The news negatively impacted the sentiment of both the physical and futures markets, leading to reduced market activity and a price correction. The impact of this is particularly strong on producers due to the rising prices of raw materials.

While the physical prices are still on the higher end, they are expected to see some corrections during the week. A producer source added that the current physical market prices look “ok.” “Maybe the turning point is here, but it’s hard to discern,” he said, adding that different markets are showing disparate signs.

Meanwhile, the market activities were largely muted with most of the buyers sidelined. Even in the Chinese market, the buying slowed down significantly. The physical market was quite weak today with several sellers but no buyers. There were some trades for warehouse cargoes ranging around US$2110-US$2115/mt, but the volumes were limited. The market is hoping China will release some big stimulus, said a Singapore-based source.

The impact of the tariff on rubber demand 

Mexico and Canada are likely to experience the immediate impact. Market participants believe it might impact vehicle production in the region, which moved to the US. This is trickling into the rubber market. While it does provide a scope for carmakers to move to other regions, that would take time. Thus, a straight impact on the midterm demand.

There were some trades reported for SIR 20, but the traded level saw some correction compared to the previous day. SIR 20 traded in the range of US$2010–US$2015/mt on an FOB basis during the day.

An Indonesian producer source noted that the Indonesian cup lump price has crossed IDR 30,000 while the physical demand and prices remained bearish. Even Thai cup lump prices continued to inch up, with trades for Thai cup lump during the day reported in the range of THB 64-THB 65/kg. Even though a stronger dollar does buffer the impact on the margins, the onset of a trade war would impact the buying sentiment, especially at the end-user end.

Tariff battle intensifies 

The US implemented 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, along with a doubling of duties on Chinese goods to 20%. Some of these products saw US tariffs increase sharply under the former president last year, including a doubling of duties on Chinese semiconductors to 50% and a quadrupling of tariffs on Chinese EVs to more than 100%.

China responded immediately after the deadline, announcing additional tariffs of 10–15% on certain US imports starting March 10 and a series of new export restrictions for designated US entities. Canada had already signaled that the first tranche of tariffs would come in shortly after US levies, targeting about $20 billion in US goods.

Market participants were concerned about the fallout for the U.S. economy, especially given the soft cues from the macro data in recent weeks. Additionally, US factory gate prices jumped, and materials deliveries were taking longer, suggesting that tariffs on imports could soon hamper production.

Spot strong on tight supply; anticipation prevailed over Chinese annual meeting

Helixtap Daily Physical Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed STR20 US$2130/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, up US$10
• Helixtap assessed SIR20 US$2027.5/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya, up US$10
• Helixtap assessed AFR10 US$2030/mt CFR Hamburg Rotterdam, up US$10
• Helixtap implied AFR10 US$2000/mt FOB Abidjan, up US$10

Helixtap ESG Prices guide (Based on Helixtap assessment and fixed premium basis)

• Helixtap ESG price guide AFR10 is US$2070/mt FOB Abidjan
• Helixtap ESG price guide for SIR20 is US$2107.5/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya

Market sentiment was “Slightly bullish” - Helixtap sentiment tracker 

Physical rubber prices have firmed up, distancing themselves from the futures market amid mounting uncertainties over immediate supply. While the Chinese buying continued, the market awaited the outcome of China’s annual meeting scheduled to start this week.

Chinese buying is still strong for prompt cargoes

The increase in the amount of purchasing activity, notably for prompt cargoes, continued during the Asian trade day, which is the primary cause of the increase in prices. The majority of this can be attributed to a lack of liquidity as well as volatility that is higher than typical.

On a CIF basis, the STR 20 mixture trades at prices ranging from US$2110 to US$2120/mt. Nevertheless, prices are unable to move beyond a specific range owing to the overall bearish cues in anticipation of the upcoming Chinese annual meeting. When it came to the availability of raw materials, the markets continued to be competitive.

Apprehension around the Chinese meeting and possible stimulus

Ministry chiefs and provincial leaders will convene the parliamentary conclave on March 5, with the expectation that officials will establish a growth target. The market participants anticipate China’s official budget deficit target to hit its highest level with some stimulus support as China grapples with deflation, a property market downturn, and an ongoing trade conflict with the US.

China is expected to significantly alter its policy this year; however, the proposed measures may not be adequately aggressive. “They are likely to come out with announcements on stimulus. However, we will still need to see how the market interprets and reacts to it,” said a Singapore-based source.

The contribution of consumption to GDP growth declined, marking the lowest level since 2006, excluding the pandemic year of 2020. The recent tariff imposition by Trump has elevated the immediate risks.

Only Japanese buyers active in the international market

Meanwhile, the buying activities remained sluggish in the international market. Amid wintering, which is driving the prices up, the prices across the board are holding strong. However, lack of buying has capped any significant surge in the prices.

The Japanese buyers, however, continued to remain active. According to Helixtap market intelligence, some Japanese buyers were booking AFR cargoes as well. Amid the early wintering, the AFR 10 prices have moved up significantly. According to a producer source, the supply for raw material is tight, and processors are struggling. The offer levels for AFR 10 were around US$2000/mt on a FOB basis, with some offers even higher..

Meanwhile, there were trades for SIR 20 reported in the range of US$2020-US$2030/mt on an FOB basis. The majority of buyers are waiting for more clarity on the tariff situation and monetary policies across the globe.. 

Macro factors 

There is a notable level of uncertainty regarding tariffs and the degree to which this uncertainty may negatively impact business. The market anticipates a reduction in interest rates when the European Central Bank convenes mid-week. However, there remains uncertainty in light of the prevailing geopolitical conditions.

The outlook regarding the Federal Reserve has become increasingly ambiguous at this juncture. Tariffs on Canada and Mexico are set to be implemented this week, and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports is set to be implemented this week, coinciding with the commencement of the National People's Congress's third annual session.

The summary from our predictive forecasting this week:

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Rubber trading cautious as backwardation steepens 

Helixtap Daily Physical Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed STR20 US$2120/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, steady
• Helixtap assessed SIR20 US$2017.5/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya, up US$2.5
• Helixtap assessed AFR10 US$2020/mt CFR Hamburg Rotterdam, steady 
• Helixtap implied AFR10 US$1990/mt FOB Abidjan, steady

Helixtap weekly Raw Material Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed Indonesian raw material IDR 30,000/kg ex-works, up IDR 200
• Helixtap assessed Thai raw material THB 62/kg ex-works, up THB 1
• Helixtap assessed Bulk latex US$1610/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, up US$10

Helixtap weekly Physical Prices Assessment

• Helixtap assessed SVR10 US$2035/mt FOB Ho chi minh, up US$25
• Helixtap assessed SMR20 US$2110/mt FOB Klang Penang, down US$30
• Helixtap assessed TSR 20 US$2100/mt CIF China, down US$40

Helixtap ESG Prices guide (Based on Helixtap assessment and fixed premium basis)

• Helixtap ESG price guide AFR10 is US$2060/mt FOB Abidjan
• Helixtap ESG price guide for SIR20 is US$2097.5/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya

Market sentiment was “Slightly bearish” - Helixtap sentiment tracker 

Spot rubber prices traded sideways with slight weakening of the sentiment during the Asian trade day owing to heightened caution, even as the spot market remained volatile and demand concerns remained intact. Backwardations have steepened in China on ongoing supply concerns ahead of the wintering season in Thailand.

The markets remained tight in terms of raw material availability. Additionally, some active buying from China over the week solidly supported premiums. According to Thai producer sources, the processors/producers are unable to obtain the required raw material.

China's backwardation 

The Chinese rubber market is witnessing a backwardation. Helixtap market intelligence indicates a notable increase in purchasing activity, particularly for prompt cargoes, which is driving the rise in prices. With prompt shipments higher than in previous months, a trader source noted that prices are stuck in a narrow range, and traders/buyers are waiting for breakouts.

This, however, has impacted the buying interest for the international buyers trading in the Chinese market. Meanwhile, in China, the buyers are largely looking at booking profit on the spread. However, slight bearishness in the sentiment during the day resulted in some correction in prices. On a CIF basis, trades for the STR 20 mixture ranged from US$2095 to US$2100/mt.

The current backwardized market is largely due to insufficient liquidity and higher-than-average volatility. With the destocking in China and wintering, the market expects the situation to continue for the next couple of weeks. A trader source noted that the majority of stocks in China are controlled by some of the major players, which is adding to the tightness in supply. 

Backwardation is theoretically a bullish sign. With the overall rubber demand still depressed and likely to remain until the EUDR buying returns to the market, it is at least a sign of somewhat better times for producers.

The market expectation is that rubber demand would be depressed for the first half of the year, especially amid the ongoing tariffs battle with the US and bearish cues from the major economies.

Market activities muted 

Meanwhile, the buyers and sellers opted to stay on the sidelines to insulate themselves from the volatility. An Indonesian producer source noted that the market is volatile, so they are waiting for next week to resume offers.

However, some regular buyers were seen in the market. Consequently, the market reported few trades for SIR 20 in the range of US$2015-US$2020/mt on a FOB basis. On the other hand, SVR 20 prices continued to inch up amid limited supply. A trader source noted SVR 10 offers ranged from US$2050 to US$2070/mt on an FOB basis.

Supply issues supporting prices

Rubber production has declined lately, with early wintering in Africa and the onset of the same in Vietnam, which would keep excess rubber off the market. Inventories in China have been declining, meaning that the oversupply may not be as drastic as feared.

A Thai producer's source noted that the raw material prices are holding firm, and he did not see any offers for Thai cup lumps in the market during the Asian trade day. The northeastern part of Thailand has also stopped producing, and for other regions, wintering is “just around the corner.”. Therefore, the supply is decreasing with each passing day, he added.

Spot firm on Chinese buying amid tight supply 

Helixtap Daily Physical Prices Assessment 

• Helixtap assessed STR20 US$2120/mt FOB Bangkok Laem Chabang, up US$10
• Helixtap assessed SIR20 US$2015/mt FOB Belawan Surabaya, up US$5
• Helixtap assessed AFR10 US$2020/mt CFR Hamburg Rotterdam, up US$10
• Helixtap implied AFR10 US$1990/mt FOB Abidjan, up US$10

Helixtap ESG Prices guide (Based on Helixtap assessment and fixed premium basis)