Highlights
 

• Price edge and stable grades help Indonesia stage a good show
   
• US demand strengthens despite Trump tariffs
   
• China demand softens, Japan slides as tariffs take effect
   

Indonesia’s rubber sector put up a display of resilience, adaptability, and strategic strength in the first four months of 2025, navigating a volatile global landscape marked by geopolitical disruptions - including Trump tariffs - rising costs, and erratic weather. Even as prices came under sustained pressure, Indonesia maintained a steady export momentum—including to sensitive markets like the United States—underscoring its competitiveness and importance in global rubber trade flows.
 

While regional peers faced setbacks, Indonesia bucked the trend and maintained growth in both export volume and value — underpinned by competitive pricing, consistent grade quality, and an ability to rightly position cargoes in key global markets.
 

Even as natural disruptions and tariff-induced uncertainty roiled sentiment and caused prices to slide after peaking in February, Indonesia’s rubber exports—especially to the United States—showed a rare upward trend, reflecting buyers’ trust in its pricing and supply chain continuity.
 

Stable export momentum amidst regional volatility
 

Source: Helixtap Analytics
 

Indonesia exported 144,405 tons of rubber worth US$293.5 million in April 2025, capping a four-month period of solid export volumes that hovered consistently above 140,000 tons every month. The quantity exported in January was 142,766 tons, followed by 141,998 tons in February, and 141,602 tons in March.
 

The value of exports too held firm, ranging between US$285 million and US$293 million, even as key competitors like Thailand faced heavier rainfall and raw material supply shocks that led to more volatile performance. Indonesian rubber exports were worth US$287 million in January, US$285.6 million in February, US$285.8 million in March and US$293.5 million in April.
 

Despite the onset of wintering in February in major rubber-producing countries, Indonesia managed to avoid any major supply breakdowns. Price competitiveness also played a key role as Thai cargoes remained expensive due to input costs; buyers preferred Indonesian rubber, which held its quality under tight raw material conditions.
 

Consistent rise in volume and value to the US
 

Contrary to expectations, the Trump tariffs, which kicked in by April and targeted automotive and rubber-linked imports from Asia, had little dampening effect on Indonesia’s exports to the U.S. In fact, exports to America rose steadily each month, from 22,611 tons in January to 32,050 tons in April, while the value of exports surged from US$45.28 million in January to US$65.25 million in April. The volume and value recorded in February were US$55.85 million and 27,212 tons and US$62.53 million and 31,017 tons in March.
 

This resilience speaks of two dynamics: first, US buyers frontloaded in anticipation of price increases due to tariffs in subsequent months; second, Indonesian rubber remained attractively priced and accessible at a time when other regional supplies were affected. Moreover, the ability to service consistent volumes, combined with logistical adaptability, gave Indonesia an edge in a climate of uncertainty.
 

China peaks in Feb, Japan starts 2025 on a high note
 

China’s demand saw a distinct tapering from February onwards. After peaking at 35,281 tons (US$68.75 million) in February, exports fell to 27,190 tons (US$54.39 million) in April. While volume dropped, price realization improved slightly in April, due to a late surge in transactional prices post-tariff implementation. The value of exports in January was US$51.56 million against 26,195 tons, while in March it was US$54.24 million against 27,486 tons.
 

Japan, which had begun the year strong with 39,926 tons (US$80.53 million) in January, dropped sharply to 23,149 tons (US$47.3 million) in March before a marginal pickup in April. The early-year spike stemmed from restocking cycles, while the subsequent decline reflected broader industrial slowdowns anticipating the effect of US tariffs. The value and volume for February were US$51.51 million and 25,636 tons, and for April, the figures were US$49.27 million and 24,064 tons.
 

South Korea and Germany, two major automakers, presented a mixed picture. Korean demand dropped in February but rebounded modestly in March. The exports to South Korea were worth US$14.86 million (7822 tons) in January before plunging to US$9.91 million (5259 tons) in February and then improving to US$12.95 million (6612 tons) in March before marginally falling to US$11.73 million (5969 tons) in April.
 

Germany showed its strongest engagement in March with 4,616 tons (US$9.76 million), demonstrating that Indonesian rubber was still finding traction in technically demanding markets. In January, its imports from Indonesia were worth US$5.52 million (2580 tons), in February at US$6.73 million (3205 tons), and in April, US$7.57 million (3588 tons).
 

The European Union imported 11,774 tons in January, followed by 10,556 tons in February, 13,247 tons in March and 13,730 tons in April.
 

Prices peak in February, then collapse under pressure

Source: Helixtap Analytics
 

Indonesia’s SIR20 rubber grade reflected the broader price cycle unfolding across the region. Starting at US$1925/mt on January 1, prices dipped briefly to US$1860/mt but rebounded strongly by the end of the month (US$1985/mt) as Thai supply tightened. The peak of the four months came on February 21 at US$2050/mt, driven by constrained supply from wintering and flood-related delays from Thailand.
 

However, the rally was short-lived. By March 24, prices had slipped to US$1985/mt, and the decline accelerated through April as demand faltered and sentiment was rattled by US tariff escalation. The bottom came on April 9, at US$1620/mt, reflecting market anxiety despite physical supply tightness. A modest recovery to US$1680/mt by April-end indicated some stabilisation, but the underlying tone remained cautious due to soft demand from China and overall macroeconomic fragility.
 

Indonesia’s rubber performance in early 2025 demonstrated the country’s adaptability and pricing advantage in a volatile global market. While pricing came under pressure, the nation’s ability to maintain export momentum—even to traditionally tariff-sensitive markets—highlighted its structural resilience and strategic importance in global rubber trade flows.