Highlights
 

• During January-April 2025, exports at 452,866 tons, down 11% YoY
   
• January-April 2025 exports value at US$872.78 mn, up 20.4% YoY
   
• Vietnam Rubber Group reports net profit of US$45.4 mn in Q1 2025
   

Vietnam’s rubber industry entered the second quarter of 2025 with growing optimism despite a transient contraction in export volumes. While production shrank as the season ended in April, export data for March and April showed contrasting dynamics. The industry faced the task of reconciling supply chains with fluctuating global demand and market reorientation in response to price signals and geopolitical frictions.
 

Export performance in March and April
 

In March 2025, Vietnam exported rubber worth US$215 million, marking a month-on-month drop of 4.67%.  The fall in export value was led by a decrease in volume, not unit price. While China, accounting for 72% of total imports,  continued to dominate as the primary market, its imports dropped by 4.55% compared to February. India, with 19,819 tons of imports, down 47.5% YoY and South Korea, with 12,970 tons, down 14.7%, were in second and third positions. Exports to the US in March recorded a significant rise of more than 110%, reflecting Vietnam’s frontloading ahead of the US tariff measures.
 

In April, the country’s exports plunged to 71,866 tons of rubber valued at US$139.46 million, as the production season came to an end. Though volume contracted 2.4%, the value shot up 18.6% year-on-year.
 

In Q1 2025, Vietnam’s 383,000 tons of rubber exported were valued at US$737.84 million, while during January-April 2025, its rubber exports hit 452,866 tons, valued at US$872.78 million, down 11% in volume but up 20.4% in value year-on-year. The Asian region cornered 341,260 tons worth US$654.36 million, down 5.8% in volume and up 24.6% in value. China, India, Malaysia, Indonesia and South Korea remained the top destinations of Vietnamese rubber. In Q1 2025, exports of NR and SR mixtures (HS code: 400280) registered an increase year-on-year, while other major rubber forms fell.
 

Source: GDC&Ministry of Trade Vietnam & Helixtap
 

Malaysia emerging as strong market

One of the most striking developments was the surge in rubber exports to Malaysia. Compared to April 2024, the volume of rubber exported to Malaysia increased by 340%, and the value by over 380%. It reflects Vietnam’s strategic advantage in price competitiveness and logistical positioning in the ASEAN trade corridor.
 

On the production front, Vietnam’s rubber cultivation area remained near steady at over 910,000 hectares, yielding around 1.3 million tons annually. Most of the plantations in the Central Highlands, Southeast, and North Central regions recorded near-consistent tapping volumes. Preliminary estimates by local cooperatives and the Vietnam Rubber Association suggest total national output remained on target for the first four months of 2025, with seasonal labor and weather conditions within forecast ranges, as the season came to an end by April. However, plantation managers in Gia Lai and Binh Phuoc voiced concerns about rising input costs—especially fertilizers and maintenance—which could exert pressure on production margins if rubber prices plateau in the coming months.
 

VRG on firm ground
 

State-owned Vietnam Rubber Group (VRG) reported a net profit of 1,184 billion VND (US$45.4 million) in Q1 2025, more than double the same period in 2024. The firm attributed its performance to favorable latex prices and steady demand across its export markets. Latex sales—VRG’s core business—rose 27% in revenue terms. This data confirms the continued profitability of upstream operations despite broader global uncertainty, highlighting the group’s ability to operate efficiently across plantation, processing, and logistics segments.
 

VRG plans to extract around 452,000 tons of latex in 2025, up 1.5% from 2024, and has set a 2025 revenue target of nearly VND30,500 billion ($1.17 billion), up 6% year-over-year. To boost revenue, VRG intends to buy about 100,000 tons of rubber, up over 28% compared to 2024.
 

US tariff and geopolitical headwinds
 

Demand-side uncertainty, particularly surrounding the US and European automotive sectors, has generated concern among Vietnamese rubber processors. The US decision to impose tariffs on vehicle imports is expected to have a ripple effect on tire and rubber demand, especially from Asian suppliers. This has, however, not yet impacted Vietnam’s natural rubber export data directly. The natural rubber-based goods exports faced margin compression due to high input costs and competitive pressure from Thailand and Indonesia.
 

Market sentiment within Vietnam’s rubber sector is cautiously optimistic. Price trends remain in the producers’ favor, but traders and exporters are paying close attention to regional demand shifts and currency fluctuations. The strengthening of the Vietnamese Dong against the US Dollar during April added mild pressure on export competitiveness, though not enough to reverse the gains from higher prices. Exporters have started exploring forward contracts and hedging mechanisms more actively.
 

VRA hopes for an export turnover of over US$11 billion in 2025
 

From a policy perspective, the Vietnamese Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has reiterated its commitment to expanding Vietnam’s share of high-value rubber products in the global market. Several initiatives aim to incentivize downstream processing and promote Vietnamese-branded rubber goods in the global market. This aligns with broader government ambitions to reduce reliance on raw latex exports and move up the value chain.
 

This measure will largely insulate the sector from external demand shocks and trade policy developments. The short-term revenue boost from elevated prices cannot substitute for long-term resilience, which requires diversified product lines and better integration with advanced manufacturing sectors.
 

Vietnam Rubber Association (VRA) estimates that its rubber industry’s total export turnover will surpass US$11 billion in 2025. This includes approximately US$3.5 billion from natural rubber, around US$5 billion from rubber products, and about US$2.5 billion from rubber wood.
 

The sharp rise in export value despite lower volumes is an encouraging short-term signal, but whether it sustains depends on the evolution of key buyer markets, especially China and the US, following the tariff war. The following two quarters will test whether Vietnam can translate its supply-side consistency into lasting export growth under evolving global market conditions.